The hard truth about Malaysia 370

Modern aviation may be the safest complex system ever devised. Each day, 100,000 flights take off and land with prosaic regularity. Accidents are so rare that, almost by definition, they mean something unprecedented has happened. The unexplained disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 -- which occurred almost two years ago, presumably killing all 239 people aboard -- is by any definition unprecedented. And despite some tantalizing hints, its fate remains utterly mysterious. As such, it makes a poor basis for dramatic changes in public policy. Modern planes are so safe that adding yet more rules and requirements in response to an incomprehensible tragedy could very well make things worse. Consider proposals to mandate tamper-proof transponders. That sounds prudent: Someone aboard Flight 370 evidently switched off its communications systems, taking it off the grid. But pilots may have perfectly valid reasons for turning a transponder off, such as recovering from a malfunction or preventing overheating. Likewise, the United Nations wants to track aircraft more frequently and in greater detail. Again, this sounds like a no-brainer. Yet planes are already thoroughly tracked. It may be that the safest thing to do in response to Malaysia Flight 370 is something that almost defies human intuition: nothing at all.<br/>