Improving economies and robust travel demand will return global airlines to record profit in 2018, with fares also set to rise, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said. Overall profits are expected to rise 11 percent to $38.4b in 2018, and the outlook is encouraging, IATA said Tuesday as it raised its 2017 forecast to $34.5b, up from an earlier $31.4b estimate, but still lower than 2016. Of the $38.4b, $27.9b will come from North American and European airlines. “We are eight years into this air travel cycle, but we see no reason at present to expect that cyclical pattern to repeat itself,” IATA Chief Economist Brian Pearce said, with reference to a trend that would usually indicate a major downturn was due. After declining for six years in a row, passenger yields, a measure of ticket pricing, are also expected to rise by 3 percent next year, after falling 1.5% in 2017. But not all the forecasts are so positive, with passenger demand measured in revenue passenger kilometers set to rise by only 6%, slightly less than 2017’s 7.5% increase. And cargo demand, also a bright spot in 2017 with demand up 9.3% after a tough few years, is expected to moderate to 4.5% in 2018. IATA said the forecast increase in passenger fares was in line with expected inflation.<br/>
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Pilots of three commercial jets reported seeing what appeared to be the missile that North Korea launched last week, raising questions about the possible risk to civilian flights from the North’s weapons program. The flight crew of Cathay Pacific Flight 893 from San Francisco to Hong Kong last Wednesday saw “what is suspected to be the re-entry” of the North Korean missile, the airline said this week. In addition, the pilots of two Korean Air flights bound for Incheon International Airport near Seoul, South Korea’s capital, saw “a flash and everyone is assuming it should be the missile because of the timing,” said a Korean Air spokesman. The North’s intercontinental ballistic missile flew for 53 minutes last Wednesday before crashing down in waters 600 miles to the east. It had the potential to fly more than 8,000 miles, analysts said, putting all of the continental United States in range. North Korea called the new missile the Hwasong-15, and photos suggested advancements over earlier models. Because the Hwasong-15 and several other missiles North Korea recently tested were launched at a high angle, they landed far closer to home than they could have. Still, several recent missiles have traveled out of North Korean airspace and closer to areas frequented by civilian flights. The North has been carrying out its missile tests without warning for years. The missiles “are predominantly re-entering into Japanese airspace,” Flight Service Bureau, a Florida-based aviation consulting firm, said in August. “This creates a new risk to civil aviation.” More details in story.<br/>
As the number of serious incidents involving drunk and violent travelers increases, airlines are being forced to physically restrain an increasing number of disorderly passengers, according to the IATA. Statistics released Tuesday by the industry’s main trade group show a 50 percent rise last year to 169 passengers who were forcibly confined for behavior ranging from verbal and physical abuse to life-threatening actions -- the most serious of which involved attempts to enter the cockpit. The annual tally by IATA of bad form comes as examples of extreme in-flight incidents grab headlines and flood social media. These have included the escort by fighter jets in May of an American Airlines plane to Honolulu after a passenger, who appeared to be intoxicated, attempted to breach the cockpit door. In some cases, the conflicts erupting in airplanes have hurt carriers’ own reputations. The number of incidents involving disorderly passengers has risen in recent years, with IATA saying in the past that airlines are increasingly having to navigate local laws to bring prosecutions for offenses and crews have to be trained on how to handle violence. While the total number of reported incidents last year actually fell by almost 10% to 9,837, the portion that were deemed a higher risk increased from 2015. <br/>
A hard Brexit would be a “disaster” for UK-based airlines, the head of the IATA said Tuesday. “If (traffic rights) are not negotiated because it is a hard Brexit it will be a disaster for the UK-based carriers because they will not be allowed to land in Europe, which is a small problem,” Alexandre de Juniac told reporters in Geneva Tuesday, although said he didn’t think it would come to that.b De Juniac also repeated that airlines needed clarity on future flying rights by October next year at the latest.<br/>
Law enforcement authorities must play a strong role to ensure there are suitable deterrents in place for those flying recreational drones to prevent danger to passenger aircraft, the IATA said Tuesday. Risks posed by the increasing use of drones were highlighted in October when a drone hit an aircraft landing at a Canadian airport and there have been several near-misses between drones and passenger planes in Europe. “This is something we do not want to see continuing,” Rob Eagles, director of air traffic management infrastructure at IATA said. “We see a strong role for law enforcement. One of the concerns we have is the unprofessional operation of small recreational drones because people do not understand the risks they could have against manned aviation,” he said. As well as fines, the registration of drone users and technology to prevent drones from straying into unauthorised areas could lessen the risk. “There has to be an active deterrent so people understand the responsibility they bear and the risks associated with irresponsible use of small recreational drones,” he said, adding that IATA was also seeking to raise awareness and educate users.<br/>
The holiday travel period will be busier than last year for US airlines, according to an industry trade group on Wednesday, as affordable fares and an improving economy make air travel more accessible. Airlines for America (A4A) forecasts that 51 million passengers will fly on US airlines globally during the 21-day period from Dec. 15 to Jan. 4, up nearly 3.5% from the year prior. Airlines will welcome a boost to their bottom lines this quarter as significantly higher operating expenses have weighed on profits in recent months. US carriers have made headlines over the last year for substantial pay increases awarded to pilots and flight attendants. The pay bumps have been a sore spot for investors, who fear that airlines' labor costs are rising more quickly than profits. American Airlines is in a particularly vulnerable position. The carrier disclosed late last month that a system error had awarded too much December vacation time to too many pilots. American struck an agreement with its pilots union to pay out twice the hourly rate to cover thousands of otherwise pilotless flights. The busy holiday period, however, will allow airlines to cushion some of the blow from higher expenses. A4A said it expects the busiest travel days to land on Dec. 21, 22 and 26. The trade group said the lightest travel days will be Dec. 16, 24, 25 and 31.<br/>
The grand opening of Berlin Brandenburg Airport Willy Brandt was slated to take place in June 2012, and the aviation world was ready and waiting.<br/>Thousands of volunteers had been conducting trial runs in the weeks leading up to the big day. The media were preparing to provide around-the-clock coverage of the event, which would have the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and numerous other VIPs among its guests. Lufthansa was even bringing one of its newly acquired Airbus A380s for the inaugural flight to Frankfurt. But then the unexpected happened -- the inauguration of Germany's new architectural jewel had to be called off at the very last moment due to "technical issues." Fast forward nearly six years, and the airport remains closed. Not a single regular commercial flight has used the state-of-the-art terminal and no official date for the inauguration has yet been provided.<br/>The construction of Berlin Brandenburg Airport continues to be an unmitigated fiasco, made all the more striking by the fact that it's taken place in a country known for its engineering prowess. Story has full background.<br/>
IATA does not foresee more US carriers pulling out of Cuba and says the airlines now serving are the “right players” for the market. When US-Cuba air service was restored in 2016, US airlines rushed into a market for which they had little accurate data and threw too much capacity into the market, IATA regional VP-the Americas Peter Cerda said Tuesday. “There were too many flights to secondary cities,” Cerda said. “Havana demand remains strong.” But the US Trump administration earlier this year made travel to the country less easy for Americans by forbidding “people-to-people” individual trips, and this has had a material effect on the market. Frontier, Silver Airways, Spirit Airlines and, most recently, Alaska Airlines have pulled out of the Cuba market. JetBlue Airways, American Airlines, Delta, Southwest and United remain in the market, but have either dropped flights to secondary cities or reduced capacity to Cuba. The airlines that remain are better able to serve the market than the ones that exited, Cerda noted. “They have the right hubs [in the US] to be more efficient, and I don’t foresee any further airlines pulling out” he said. “Havana will be the main focus from now on.” Despite these developments, Cuba is a “bright spot” for IATA in the Latin America and Caribbean region, Cerda said. “When you take the US flights out of the equation, there is tremendous demand for flights to Cuba from Europe and elsewhere in Latin America,” Cerda said. <br/>
“Smart suitcases” may be able to charge mobile phones or be easily found if misplaced, but unless their battery can be removed they risk being sent packing by the world’s airlines. Global airlines body IATA said it could issue industry-wide standards on the new luggage soon, after some US airlines issued their own restrictions on smart bags, whose manufacturers include companies such as BlueSmart, Raden or Away. These contain GPS tracking and can charge devices, weigh themselves or be locked remotely using mobile phones, but they are powered by lithium ion batteries, which the aviation industry regards as a fire risk, especially in the cargo hold. “We expect guidance to be issued potentially this week,” Nick Careen, IATA senior vice president of airport, passenger, cargo and security, told a media briefing in Geneva on Tuesday, when asked about restrictions placed by some airlines. US carriers American Airlines, Delta and Alaska Airlines all said last week that as of Jan. 15, 2018, they would require the battery to be removed before allowing the bags on board. Careen gave no details of any potential industry-wide standards, but said he expected others could quickly follow the example of the US carriers.<br/>