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The global aviation industry has warned it will take at least three years to recover to 2019 levels from the coronavirus pandemic, as flight-shy travellers ensure that both holiday and business air traffic lag well behind any economic recovery. The latest gloomy forecast from the IATA adds to the depressing COVID-19 aviation landscape of grounded fleets, flatlining revenue, depleted cash and job cuts, alongside the threat of punitive social distancing measures, border closures and restrictive quarantine regimes. IATA's baseline scenario is that domestic aviation demand, as measured by revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), will limp back to 2019 levels by 2022, but international RPKs won't recover until 2024. Even as far out as 2025, global RPKs would still be 10 per cent below what they would have been if they'd followed the expected pre-COVID trajectory. An IATA survey suggested 58% of recent air travellers would initially only undertake domestic air travel, meaning "the impact of the crisis on long-haul travel will be much more severe and of longer duration than what is expected in domestic markets", said IATA DG Alexandre de Juniac. De Juniac said international travel couldn't restart at all if 14-day quarantine measures remain in place. De Juniac said IATA was pushing the global aviation regulator, the International Civil Aviation Authority, to come up with a "risk-based layered approach to biosecurity" that would remove the need for quarantines.<br/>

All major US airlines have rolled out requirements for passengers and crew to wear face coverings in response to concerns over contagion. But the rules are only effective if people are willing to follow them and if the companies ferrying passengers are serious about enforcement. Pilots worry that travelers could remove their masks and spark a confrontation with others during a flight. They are pressing the FAA to require masks instead of leaving it up to individual airlines. “I can’t imagine the stir on the airplane if someone takes off their mask,” said Dennis Tajer, a 737 pilot and spokesman for the pilots’ union at American Airlines. “It puts the flight crew in a precarious position." On airplanes, enforcement appears to be spotty at best. American Airlines has told pilots that gate agents may deny passengers from boarding if they aren't wearing a mask but it doesn’t expect crews to continue policing once they're in the air. “Once on board and off the gate, the face covering policy will become more lenient,” according to an American Airlines memo to pilots. "The flight attendant’s role is informational, not enforcement, with respect to the face covering policy. The flight attendants are instructed not to escalate the issue if the passenger refuses to wear a face covering and to consider options, such as reseating if other passengers are involved, to defuse the situation.” Even with enforcement, the effectiveness of masks is questionable, especially on planes when passengers remove them for snacks and drinks, touch their faces and spread germs. And in general, many people are donning masks incorrectly, in ways that could increase risks, experts said.<br/>

Thousands of airline customers who cancelled bookings because of the coronavirus epidemic can’t get their money back. Some Senate Democrats are picking up the issue. “At a time when families are struggling to pay for food, for housing, for prescriptions, it’s absolutely unconscionable that the airlines won’t return this money to consumers,” Sen. Edward Markey, D-Mass., said during an online news conference with consumer groups. Markey and four other Senate Democrats proposed legislation on Wednesday that would require airlines to give full cash refunds to passengers during the pandemic, even if it was the customer who canceled. They say they will try to include the requirement in any further virus-relief measures. The senators have previously estimated that airlines are holding back more than $10b by refusing to pay cash refunds. Anna Laitin, director of financial policy for Consumer Reports, said in some cases airlines have pushed vouchers even when it was the airline that cancelled the flight. Industry officials say that problem has been fixed.<br/>

Brussels has warned Britain it risks costly lawsuits in the European Court of Justice if it fails to extend coronavirus quarantine measures to all EU citizens. Britain is considering exempting France from rules to make people self isolate 14 days upon arrival, but the European Commission said the offer should be extended to any of the other 26 EU member states with a similar coronavirus risk profile. Leading Euroseptics on Wednesday urged the Government to ignore the threat, and called upon it to act ruthlessly in the national interest. A commission spokesman said: "If there was a member state that was discriminating and was not in line with EU legislation, the commission would intervene. People travelling from the same place could not be forced into quarantine on the basis of their nationality, the spokesman said. “That would be something which would draw our attention,” he added. The commission can bring lawsuits which can ultimately lead to huge daily fines levied by the EU’s top court in Luxembourg. Despite Brexit, Britain remains subject to the European Court of Justice until the end of the transition period at the end of this year.<br/>

A record-low number of people passed through Narita Airport during nation's Golden Week holidays as most airlines suspended flights due to the coronavirus pandemic, immigration authorities said Wednesday. The number of travelers during the holiday period between April 24 and May 6 dropped 99 percent from a year earlier to about 12,700, the lowest since comparable data became available in 2008, according to the Narita Airport District Immigration Office. The preliminary data showed that nearly 6,700 departed from the international airport near Tokyo during the period, of which about 850 were Japanese nationals, down 99.8% from a year before. Those who arrived at the airport from abroad totalled some 6,000, of which about 4,600 were Japanese. Before the virus was first detected in China late last year, the number of people using Narita had been on the rise, with more flights for inbound tourists becoming available. During the previous year's Golden Week holidays, as many as 1.26m travellers passed through the airport.<br/>

The nation's biggest tourist island is seeking permission from Bangkok to reopen its airport, ports and permanent road access to the mainland after several days with no new covid-19 infections detected. Provincial governor Phakaphong Tavipatana said Wednesday that the province will ask the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) for approval to reopen the airport on Saturday. The current lockdown period ends at midnight Friday. The CAAT ordered the airport closed since April 3 to restrict air travel as health authorities nationwide battled to contain spread of the coronavirus disease. Three airlines have notified the province of their plans to resume limited domestic passenger services to Phuket, at one flight a day, Phakaphong said. People entering Phuket would be required to follow the instructions of the Provincial Communicable Disease Committee, including filling out a form so officials can keep track of them for health checks.<br/>

Vietnam will not consider applications for new airlines as it looks to prioritise the recovery of its aviation sector after the impact of the novel coronavirus, the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam (CAAV) said on Wednesday. Vietnam's aviation market has seen double-digit annual growth over the past decade but due to the pandemic, the number of arrivals this year is expected to fall by 43% on the year, according to a Transport Ministry report in April. "The government now has to focus on resuming domestic and international routes and supporting existing airlines, which have been hit hard by the outbreak," the CAAV said. "The establishment of new airline will resume when the pandemic passes." Vietnam suspended all international and most domestic flights in March and April. Domestic flights have resumed since April 22, after the government lifted a lockdown order, while international flights are expected to partially resume from June 1. Two airlines are awaiting permits, Kite Air of hospitality group Thien Minh and Vietravel Airlines of tourism firm Vietravel.<br/>

The rescue package to airlines in Brazil will total about 4b reais ($680m), according to people familiar to the matter. The package, which was presented to airlines on Wednesday, includes credit from development lender BNDES, which will provide 60% of the money, the people said, asking not to be named because the discussions are private. Other banks will provide another 10%, they said, adding that the companies will have to seek the remaining 30% from investment funds via capital markets. Azul, Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes, and Latam Airlines Group can seek the aid, the people said. The companies will use warrants to raise funds, and the price for the shares on the warrant and the dilution to current shareholders is different to each firm, one of the people said, without giving details.<br/>

Could Covid-19 take the airline industry back to the 1990s, when roomier planes flew fewer people on fewer routes at higher prices? Nostalgia should be kept in check. On Tuesday, Ryanair said it plans to restore 40% of its scheduled flights in July. It will address health concerns by requiring passengers and crew to submit to temperature checks and wear masks. The company is a vocal critic of removing middle seats to increase social distancing—an idea floated by both its European rival easyJet and American Airlines. The International Air Transport Association has warned that the cost of losing one-third of airplane capacity would increase fares by between 43% and 54%. This debate underscores a long-term risk that aviation investors are now pondering: Even if passengers slowly return, changes in health policies, networks and consumer preferences could make airlines a fundamentally different business. Economizing on space and increasing the industry “load factor” to about 85%, from 75% in 2005, is part of what finally made many global airlines profitable in recent years. But passengers often complain about cramped seats and minuscule toilets. Could Covid-19 make them value room more? Story examines question.<br/>

Airbus is preparing for permanent job cuts after warning unions that it needs to rein in production amid a collapse in demand, people with knowledge of the situation said. Discussions have begun with labor groups in Germany, France and Spain, the people said, with the formal process expected to start next week. The number of positions to be eliminated hasn’t yet been decided, according to the people, who asked not to be named disclosing private information. Airbus executives will thrash out an initial plan on a call next week, the people said. It may take months to arrive at a final figure for redundancies, which will depend on the depth of the aerospace downturn and negotiations with labor unions. The process will also include office staff at the planemaker’s headquarters in Toulouse, France, they said. The measures follow a rapid reversal of an aerospace market that was riding a decade of growth before the coronavirus hit. Fighting the disease has cut drastically into air travel, forcing airlines to park planes and hurling healthy carriers into a state of financial distress. With demand in retreat, Airbus has slashed production goals by more than a third. <br/>