While business travel evaporated in a flash when the coronavirus hit, it may take two to three years for it to fully recover — far longer than many travel experts initially predicted. Even that timeline, said Henry Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel market research firm in San Francisco, depends on “the broader economy, the industry a firm operates in and demand for its products or services, as well as the public health environment.” And two to three years may be too optimistic — at least for a recovery by the major airlines. Michael Derchin, an airline analyst, described the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on carriers as “Sept. 11 and the Great Recession on steroids.” He estimated that it could take airlines seven years, if not longer, to recover. While business travellers make up about 10% of all passengers on the major airlines — including American, Delta, United, Lufthansa and Singapore — they generate half the airlines’ revenue, Derchin said. And Harteveldt estimated that business travellers were responsible for 55 to 75% of major airlines’ profits worldwide. Not only do business travellers buy more expensive and profitable tickets, they are also more likely to hold airline credit cards and buy airport lounge memberships, among other services.<br/>
general
Japan, Australia, India and South Korea are the Asia-Pacific countries that will see the worst revenue impact from the Covid-19 pandemic, running into tens of billions of dollars, IATA has predicated. In providing a country-by-country breakdown, IATA reiterates its 9 June forecast that Asia-Pacific, as the first region to feel the impact of Covid-19, will suffer the largest loss this year: $29b, or $30.09 per passenger. The same forecast estimates that Europe will take a $21.5b hit and North America, $23.1b, against a global loss of $84.3b. In a 13 July statement, IATA’s regional VP for Asia-Pacific, Conrad Clifford, emphasises the need for governments in the Asia-Pacific region to facilitate the restart of air connectivity in line with ICAO’s guidance on measures to mitigate the public health risk. He states: “It will take a few years for the industry to get back to 2019 levels of activity. In the interim, governments will need to continue providing financial relief and assistance to airlines as well as flexibility in slot usage. We are also working with airports and air navigation service providers to identify areas of co-operation with a view to reducing costs for airlines.” IATA forecasts that Japan’s revenue will decline by $23.9b year on year in 2020 and Australia’s by $14.8b. Over the same period, IATA expects the revenue impacts on India and South Korea to be $11.6b and $11.1b respectively. The industry body predicts that most Asia-Pacific countries to lose around half of passenger demand in 2020 compared with 2019, though the revenue impact varies across countries.<br/>
The number of passengers flying with Russian airlines in June fell 77.5% year on year, the federal aviation authority said on Monday, with fewer people travelling amid the new coronavirus pandemic. Russian airlines carried 2.84m passengers, it said. The number of passengers in the first half of the year fell by 52% to 27.8m.<br/>
Passenger numbers from the US to Ireland in recent days have been less than 10% of what would normally be expected at this time of year while a significant number of flights are crossing the Atlantic with fewer than 20 passengers on board. While concerns have grown about the number of US visitors flying into Dublin and subsequently moving around the country despite a spike in Covid-19 cases in many US states and Irish rules mandating a 14-day quarantine period for new arrivals, airport sources say tourist numbers remain very low. Aer Lingus is flying to three destinations in the US – Boston, New York and Chicago – and has kept those routes active throughout the crisis. United Airlines recommenced four weekly flights to Newark on July 7th while American Airlines resumed flights to and from Dallas on July 11th. Numbers on most flights have been less than 20 with not much more than 100 people travelling from the US to Ireland on American carriers over the last seven days. An American Airlines spokeswoman said it had operated two flights from Dallas/Fort Worth to Dublin since resuming service. “The busiest flight we operated only had 8% of the seats occupied,” she said.<br/>
Ireland will consider strengthening measures at airports to implement 14-day quarantine restrictions on people travelling from abroad, its tourism minister said on Monday, following criticism by opposition politicians and tourism operators that visitors are not complying. Ireland introduced the voluntary rule in April, and from late May required incoming travellers to provide the address where they will self-isolate. It plans to move to an electronic system capturing data from airlines and ferry operators shortly. Restaurant, hotel and pub owners took to Twitter over the weekend to say they turned away customers from the US after learning they had not self-isolated for 14 days. "The cabinet will be discussing measures this week that may be needed, such as strengthening measures at airports, ahead of issuing a possible green list of countries," Tourism Minister Catherine Martin said. Ireland plans to publish on July 20 a "green list" of countries whose residents will be exempt from the quarantine rule but has said it will be limited to a small number and based on the amount of new COVID-19 cases, the trend, and quality of testing and tracing in qualifying countries.<br/>
On the reddish plains of Turpan in northwestern China, COMAC has conducted test flights of its C919 passenger jet since late June. Temperatures in the city can exceed 40 C in the height of summer, and the state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China seeks to ensure that the aircraft withstands the blistering heat. COMAC and its passenger jet are key components of Beijing's drive to become a global leader in high-tech industries. Though the latest tests bring the country one step closer to becoming a major airplane producer, the US trade war has highlighted how China's aerospace industry remains dependent on foreign technology and parts. Development of the C919 began in 2008. The roughly 160-seat plane is comparable in size to the Airbus A320 or the Boeing 737, which are used widely by major carriers and budget airlines alike. COMAC has received orders for over 800 jets, largely from Chinese airlines. China currently relies on US and European makers for the majority of its aircraft. But with aerospace technology a crucial area of promotion under President Xi Jinping's "Made in China 2025" manufacturing initiative launched in 2015, Beijing wants more than 10% of passenger jets on major routes to be made at home within five years. As part of this effort, China has been absorbing foreign know-how. COMAC parent Aviation Industry Corp. of China formed a joint venture with US-based Parker Hannifin for fuel control systems, and with United Technologies, now Raytheon Technologies, for power systems. Story has more.<br/>
Airport services group Swissport announced Monday that it had obtained $170.4m from the US to pay salaries under a US programme designed to support the economy. The assistance comes mainly in the form of loans as part of the CARES Act, a vast emergency support plan implemented at the end of March to mitigate the repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy. The deal between Swissport North America and the US Treasury "provides Swissport with approximately $170m of additional funds for payroll support during the disruption that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused in the aviation industry," the Swiss firm said. Some $111.9m comes as a grant and $58.5m will take the form of an unsecured, non-amortising 10-year promissory note. The first instalment was received on Friday, with further instalments expected to be received by Swissport by the end of July and the end of August. The funds can only be used to keep paying wages, salaries, and benefits to Swissport employees in the US.<br/>
The Airports of Thailand (AoT) is unlikely to post losses in the current fiscal year, despite the devastation caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, says its president, Nitinai Sirismatthakarn. Although the virus outbreak has forced many airports and airlines to shut for several months, AoT's operations during the high season from October 2019 to January 2020 were strong enough to offset losses, he said. Nitinai said that during those first four months of the fiscal year, AoT reported profits of 10.9b baht, adding: "I don't think AoT will see losses this year or the losses will be small. Operations during the first four months were good enough to carry us over the entire year." However, Nitinai said his optimism did not extend to the next fiscal year as the aviation and travel industries were unlikely to recover by the time the high season started in October this year.<br/>