Airlines could face worse-than-expected losses this year due to the coronavirus crisis, latest industry data show, even as many parts of the world are seeing a "second wave" of the COVID-19 pandemic. The ICAO, in a report out on Thursday, projected international and domestic aviation could take up to a $399b hit, in terms of gross passenger revenue for Q1 alone. That is much higher than the initial estimated losses of $314b the industry group IATA projected in April 2010 for the global aviation industry, as IATA had projected a “3-month lockdown + recession” then. For an indication of how civil aviation has been hit hard by the virus, Flight Radar reported tracking 11,000 flights on Sunday, October 5, 2020 on https://flightradar24.com. That's a huge drop from 230,000 flights cruising through the sky all around the globe on July 25, 2019 (aviation’s busiest day in history). And that's still a nine-fold reduction compared to the 102,465 average number of flights a day worldwide recorded in 2019.<br/>
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The EU’s battered aviation industry may soon get some relief from the confusingly wide range of travel curbs across the continent, as the bloc’s governments seek agreement on a common threshold for imposing restrictions. Under a proposal circulated by the German government, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, restriction-free travel will be allowed between regions with fewer than 25 new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people for the previous 14 days, and with a reading of positive virus tests lower than 4%. The plan is to illustrate the new thresholds using a color-coded map of the 27 nation-EU -- plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland -- to be updated on a weekly basis, according to a draft circulated to diplomats in Brussels and seen by Bloomberg. If governments agree on the new rules, airlines could gain relief from the current situation of uncoordinated, country-by-country announcements on quarantine requirements for incoming travelers and abrupt travel bans. Confusion over those rules has added to the woes of an industry already pummeled by its worst crisis on record. The German proposal follows consultations between member states on a recommendation put forth by the EU’s executive arm last month. EU diplomats are discussing the plan this week, and it remains unclear whether it will garner the necessary support. Under the proposed system, a flight could be permitted between two regions coded “green” on the map, even if other areas of the country where the flight originated from were coded “red.” The red category would be used for regions where the number of new cases per 100,000 people over the previous 14 days totaled 50 or more, with positive tests at more than 4%. Positivity rates wouldn’t be taken into account if the cumulative number of new infections was more than 150 per 100,000 people.<br/>
As the number of unrestricted international travel options for British holidaymakers shrinks towards zero, the government has indicated it may finally allow testing to reduce the length of quarantine for arrivals to the UK. Ministers have repeatedly said that a Covid-19 test on arrival would identify only 7% of people with the virus, though that figure – based on a theoretical paper written in June – has been widely disputed. Dozens of countries are using testing either as an alternative to quarantine or as a means to reduce the time travellers spend in self-isolation. With pressure growing from the aviation industry, the transport secretary, Grant Shapps, and the health secretary, Matt Hancock, are expected in the next few days to outline a test-and-quarantine programme. On Saturday, Stephen Barclay, the chief secretary to the treasury, told the Conservative Party conference the government is looking at “what testing can we have at airports, and how does that interact with the quarantine rules?”. The minister said that Germany, where passengers from high-risk countries are required to quarantine until a negative test result is processed, is being studied as a possible model. Heathrow has been calling for testing at airports for four months.<br/>
The FAA said Monday it would extend temporary waivers of minimum flight requirements at some major US airports through late March 2021 because of the coronavirus pandemic. Airlines can lose their slots at congested airports if they do not use them at least 80% of the time. The FAA said it would extend the waivers at New York’s John F. Kennedy and LaGuardia airports and Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport that were set to expire in October. At four other US airports where the FAA has a formal schedule-review process - Chicago O’Hare, Newark, New Jersey, Los Angeles and San Francisco - the agency proposes to extend credits to airlines for flights that were canceled due to the coronavirus as though those flights were operated through Dec. 31. Major airline groups cited “historically low levels of bookings, with overall bookings down 82% year-on-year for 2020 compared to the outlook for 2019; consumer demand that continues to fall ... and the need for schedule flexibility to support sustainable loads.” The FAA, which first proposed the extensions on Sept. 11, said on Monday it “seeks to ensure the efficient use of valuable aviation infrastructure and maximize the benefits to both airport users and the traveling public.”<br/>