Airline industry revenues are expected to remain 46% lower in 2021 than the $838b booked in the last pre-coronavirus year of 2019, industry body IATA said Tuesday in a marked worsening of its forecasts. Its previous outlook for a smaller drop of 29% "was based on expectations for a demand recovery commencing in the fourth quarter of 2020." That is now unlikely to materialise because of renewed Covid-19 outbreaks and government restrictions in response, said the federation. Over the full year in 2020, IATA forecasts a 66% drop in traffic compared to last year. "The fourth quarter of 2020 will be extremely difficult and there is little indication the first half of 2021 will be significantly better, so long as borders remain closed and/or arrival quarantines remain in place," IATA DG Alexandre de Juniac said. Even with drastic cost-cutting, airlines will need further government aid to avoid running out of cash, de Juniac said. IATA also urged airports and air traffic controllers not to increase their prices to cover shortfalls from the vastly lower traffic. And it warned that relief for airlines this year on fuel costs thanks to low oil prices is expected to fade away in 2021. "Even if we maximize our cost cutting, we still won’t have a financially sustainable industry in 2021," de Juniac said, adding that 1.3m jobs were at risk in the aviation industry alone.<br/>
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The Covid-19 pandemic has caused the worst financial crisis in the history of the airline industry. But when the health crisis is over, airlines' financial problems will probably continue for years. History has shown clearly that it takes a tremendous amount of time for passenger traffic to recover after a recession. Most recently, it took a whopping five years after Great Recession ended in 2009 for passenger traffic to recover, according to Philip Baggaley, the chief credit analyst for airlines at Standard & Poors. Even after the relatively mild 2000 recession caused by the bursting of the dot-com bubble, it took until 2004 for US air passenger traffic to again reach its pre-recession peak. "Recessions are tough for the industry. Airlines are dependent on economic growth," said Baggaley. Beyond the years it takes for overall air travel to recover after a recession, historically it takes even longer for a return of business travel, which is the most lucrative sector for airlines -- one most of them depend upon. That's one part of what makes this recession particularly chilling for airlines. On an overall scale the pandemic has caused widespread economic pain, with millions losing their jobs and burning through savings that they might otherwise have used for discretionary spending like vacations. But when it comes to that all-important business travel, the situation is arguably worse. Many companies have fewer employees on payrolls with a need to travel. Most will also be trying to recoup losses or pay down debt caused by the pandemic -- and trimming travel by skipping conferences and meeting with clients virtually is likely to be a cost-cutting measure. And, of course, there are many companies that have gone out of business altogether during the crisis.<br/>"Business travel typically falls farther and takes longer to recover," said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics. Sacks thinks next year's travel will still be significantly affected by the pandemic itself. But he said he believes that in "2022, we're dealing with picking up the pieces from the economy that has been damaged. In this case, I think four years [after 2021] is what we're looking at to get leisure travel back to pre-pandemic levels. Businesses will take at least an extra year." Story has more.<br/>
Transmission risks of COVID-19 during airline flights are very low and below other routine activities during the pandemic such as grocery shopping or going out to dinner, when using face coverings and taking other steps, researchers at the Harvard School of Public Health said Tuesday. The report found transmission risks can be “reduced to very low levels through the combination of layered infection control measures.” The report, funded by Airlines for America and a consortium of aircraft and equipment manufacturers and airport operators, comes as US airlines lose billions of dollars a month as passenger demand remains down 65% year on year because of the coronavirus. US carriers are operating just 50% the flights they did in 2019. Some carriers have recently announced new plans to end blocking of middle seats during the pandemic. The Aviation Public Health Initiative team at Harvard recommended strategies to mitigate transmission risk on aircraft, during boarding and exiting. The report found after airlines mandated masks, boosted cleaning procedures and revised boarding procedures, “and with millions of passenger hours flown, there has been little evidence to date of onboard disease transmission.” The report noted commercial passenger aircraft are equipped with ventilation systems that refresh cabin air on average every 2-3 minutes and removing more than 99% of particles of the size that cause SARS-CoV-2. Researchers also found face masks significantly reduce risks of disease transmission during the COVID-19 crisis. The Harvard report said risks remain that contagious pre- or asymptomatic people could be unaware and opt to fly.<br/>
Demand for transatlantic flights will not recover until at least 2026, leaving the likes of BA and Virgin Atlantic particularly exposed, experts have warned. Services from Europe to North America will be the last to recover, according to consultancy Bain. Flights within Asia will rebound the fastest, returning to pre-pandemic levels in little more than a year. Flying passengers between the UK and North America has been particularly profitable for BA in recent years, with the flag carrier holding a dominant position on a number of key routes. Virgin Atlantic had expected to return to profitability prior to the crisis. While Sir Richard Branson's airline secured a GBP1.2b rescue over the summer, it remains to be seen how a second wave and a delayed recovery will affect the airline’s finances. Geoffrey Weston, head of Bain’s airlines practice, said that European airlines would suffer more than their US rivals. American carriers have a more profitable domestic market and an insolvency regime that more easily allows them to restructure operations and cut costs, he added. Meanwhile, BA and Virgin Atlantic have not benefited from multi billion-euro bailouts handed to the likes of Lufthansa and Air France-KLM. Aviation bosses have predicted that demand for air travel will take a number of years to recover. But the analysis by Bain signalled a wait of almost six years before transatlantic demand returns. Weston added: "The US is by far the largest long-haul market for Heathrow so they need to do everything they can to try and re-establish these routes. This is difficult without clear and rapid multi-lateral coordination on testing and quarantine protocols. Heathrow’s initiative is a great step forward but it can’t be hoped to substitute for at-scale regulatory coordination.”<br/>
The two largest US flight attendant unions, representing more than 75,000 workers, endorsed Democratic candidate Joe Biden on Tuesday ahead of the US presidential election next week. The unions have been pressing Congress and Republican President Donald Trump to back $25b in additional payroll assistance to prevent 32,000 airline furloughs. The Association of Professional Flight Attendants, representing the 27,000 American Airlines flight attendants, and the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA that represents about 50,000 workers at 20 airlines, said in separate statements they were endorsing Biden. Asked about the timing of the endorsement, AFA-CWA International President Sara Nelson said: “The complete and total failure of this president on any plan around coronavirus, putting our lives in danger and now putting tens of thousands of us out of work with no hope for fixing that gives us the space to do what we normally would be doing this time of year.” Trump campaign spokesman Ken Farnaso said Biden’s “threats to re-close the economy” and said the Democrat’s policies would “keep our country grounded and would be the final nail in the coffin for the American travel and hospitality industries.” Biden said this week that he would issue a mandate requiring the use of face coverings in all interstate transportation like airline flights, while the Trump administration has repeatedly rejected mandates. “Right now there’s no plan. The only plan is politicizing things like masks which put the people who I represent in more danger not only in terms of their lives, their safety at work, but also the longevity of our industry and our industry’s ability to even survive,” Nelson said.<br/>
Many European airports will struggle to stave off insolvency without state help unless travel recovers from its pandemic slump by the end of the year, according to the continent’s main industry group. Airports Council International Europe predicts that 193 out of 740 airports in the region will soon struggle to pay their bills while government-imposed quarantine requirements remain in place, according to findings released Tuesday. The airfields in doubt are mainly smaller, regional hubs but still account for about 277,000 jobs, ACI said. “The figures published today paint a dramatically bleak picture,” Director General Olivier Jankovec said. “Eight months into the crisis all of Europe’s airports are burning through cash to remain open, with revenues far from covering the costs of operations.” Airlines and airports are among the companies hardest hit by the pandemic, and both industries are calling for an international testing agreement that prevents passengers from having to isolate for weeks at their destination -- a factor that’s putting off many people from traveling. Such a system, which would still require passengers to provide a negative test before departure, could reopen lucrative transatlantic routes and is soon set to reconnect Hong Kong and Singapore. “Governments’ current imposition of quarantines rather than testing is bringing Europe’s airports closer to the brink with every day that passes,” Jankovec said. <br/>
Dubai airport, the world's busiest for international travel before the coronavirus crisis, could see passenger traffic fall by as much 70% this year, its CE said. A wave of new infections around the world ahead of the typically busy Christmas and year-end travel season has brought further uncertainty to an industry already decimated by the pandemic. Dubai airport could see passenger traffic fall 55 to 65% this year to 30 to 40m passengers if it continues on its current trajectory, CEO Paul Griffiths said. The airport is handling around a million monthly passengers - more than it had projected - though Griffiths cautioned traffic could fall by as much as 70% this year. Flights have gradually increased since a United Arab Emirates ban on most passenger services was lifted in June. Dubai state carrier Emirates is flying to around 100 destinations. Griffiths urged governments to reduce quarantine rules for passengers in favour of what he said were clear and practical policies that could include testing travellers for the virus before departure and on arrival. "The thing that is obviously a problem at the moment is the requirement for quarantine in certain parts of the world. If you go to the UK at the moment, you're subject to 14 days quarantine and a lot of people are not able to afford the time," he said. The UAE requires those travelling on flights to the country to obtain a negative test result before departing.<br/>