Europe’s air traffic outlook a ‘complete disaster’ until at least April

Europe faces a “quickly deteriorating” situation in terms of falling air traffic during the first quarter, with competing “reasonable” assumptions regarding a significant improvement or otherwise from April onwards, according to the latest short-term forecast data from Eurocontrol. Crucially, the European air traffic management body says today, any recovery going into 2021’s summer season hinges on whether Q2 of the year sees governments beginning to relax travel restrictions. Before that point, the immediate situation is “a complete disaster for European aviation”, according to Eurocontrol director general Eamonn Brennan, as countries impose stricter border controls amid concerns about new Covid-19 variants. February and March will be “exceptionally low across the network, except for cargo, some business [aviation] traffic and skeleton scheduled services”, he says, referring to aircraft movements in European airspace. In February, flight numbers are expected to be down 72-74% on 2019 levels, while for March they are expected to be 72-77% lower. Brennan continues: “Even April is expected to perform very poorly with only a limited pick-up for the Easter period. Flights in Europe will probably only be around 25%-30% of normal.” Indeed, April is the tipping point in Eurocontrol’s forecast; the month where its two scenarios significantly diverge. <br/>