A shortage of pilots could keep the airlines from making a real comeback

An important question facing the airline industry is not whether it will face a pilot shortage, but when it will begin. With the number of flights reduced to a fraction of what they were before the pandemic, it's hard to imagine that there could be a pilot shortage on the horizon. As of February, global airlines were only flying at about 47% of pre-Covid capacity, based on our own analysis of data from OAG and the IATA. But by 2025, after global demand in domestic and international travel expands beyond 2019 levels, we expect a worldwide shortfall of at least 34,000 commercial pilots — almost 10% of the total workforce. That gap, which will begin to be felt as early as next year, is based on a modest recovery scenario. If we were to see a more rapid recovery, that shortage could reach 50,000. The danger: A pilot shortage could ultimately limit industry growth later in the decade by as much as 10% to 12%, according to our analysis. And thanks to the pivotal role air transport plays in the global economy — aviation accounts for about 4% of global gross domestic product — slower industry recovery could temper economic growth worldwide.<br/>