Airlines’ net-zero pledges fly on fumes

Aviation doesn’t sound like one of global warming’s most pressing headaches. At just over 900m tonnes of carbon dioxide, flying contributed only 2.5% of the world’s carbon emissions in 2019. Yet getting these down could prove fiendishly difficult. Last month the IATA, the airline industry body, said it wanted aviation’s net carbon footprint to fall to zero by 2050. That’s as it should be. Its own forecasts assume emissions grow 3% every year, meaning roughly 2b tonnes by 2050. Because other sectors are decarbonising rapidly as they move to zero-carbon technologies, aviation’s relative proportion of global emissions will increase. The catch is that cutting from 2b tonnes requires solutions that right now are expensive, futuristic, or both. Historically, improvements in jet-engine design have delivered efficiency gains of 1.5%-2% a year. Eking out future technological savings will get harder. But swapping old planes for fuel-efficient ones like Boeing’s 737 MAX or Airbus’s A320neo will make the global jet fleet up to 25% leaner by 2050, the ICAO reckons. This cuts projected CO2 output to 1.5b tonnes with minimal additional outlay. Thankfully, the world has moved on from the Cold War, when airspace over countries like the Soviet Union was off limits, forcing passenger jets into long detours. That said, there’s still scope for more point-to-point flying, especially in crowded regions like Europe. ICAO reckons such improvements can shave another 10% – or 200m tonnes – off 2050’s CO2 output. That brings emissions down to 1.3b tonnes, again for minimal cost. Still, that’s 1.5 times what Germany belched out in 2019. It’s also where the quick fixes end. Story has more.<br/>