Asia-Pacific to lead air traffic growth through 2040: Boeing

Boeing sees the Asia-Pacific region leading demand for new aircraft in the 2020s and 2030s, forecasting that air traffic growth in the region will outpace both world air traffic growth and world GDP growth. Using 2019 as a starting point, Boeing expects RPK growth within the region to run at 5% annually thru 2040, well ahead of average annual world traffic growth of 4%, and global GDP growth of 2.7%. According to Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook for the region, this growth will drive demand for 17,645 new aircraft valued at $3.1t, as well as aftermarket services valued at $3.7t. The forecasts were made by Darren Hulst, Boeing’s VP of commercial marketing, in a briefing with Asia-Pacific reporters. On why Boeing discounted the year 2020, in which air traffic collapsed amid the coronavirus pandemic, Hulst says is not representative of longer-term industry trends. He expects domestic markets such as Brazil, India, Southeast Asia, and the USA to recover to 2019 levels by the end of 2022. “We have seen strong resilience in Asia Pacific traffic when restrictions are lifted and passengers feel confident about travel,” says Hulst. “Carriers with efficient and versatile fleets will be positioned to meet passenger needs and air freight demand with airplanes that reduce fuel use, emissions and operating costs.” Of the overall Asia-Pacific requirement through 2040, narrowbodies will account for “nearly 13,500” deliveries, or about 75% of the total. Widebody aircraft cargo will see demand for “nearly 3,800” aircraft. Hulst also disclosed that the Asia-Pacific will require 1,000 new and converted freighters by 2040, ahead of North American demand for just over 800 freighters.<br/>