Airbus sees pandemic as a blip with 39,000 new jets by 2040

The coronavirus pandemic that’s stunted aircraft sales represents only a temporary setback, Airbus SE said, with replacement planes tied to reducing carbon emissions driving demand over the next two decades. Airlines, leasing firms and cargo carriers will purchase more than 39,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft by 2040, the European planemaker said Saturday, unveiling its first long-term market outlook in two years ahead of the Dubai Airshow. The numbers are little changed from the 39,200 jets Airbus forecast for 2019-2038, when the European planemaker last issued the forecast. Still, the assessment suggests manufacturers lost two years of growth with Covid-19, given the out-years in the long-range outlook generally contain higher figures than the ones they replace. “It would be premature to claim we’re out of the woods,” said Christian Scherer, CCO and head of Airbus International. “There are still some questions, like is society going to want to accelerate the drive to sustainable aviation and to what extent is business travel going to come back.” Airbus and Boeing will rely on accelerated retirement of older, less fuel-efficient aircraft to stoke uptake as airlines seek to improve their climate credentials. Airbus, based in Toulouse, France, paused its annual update of the figures last year, because the long-term impact of the pandemic wasn’t clear. “As economies and air transport mature, we see demand increasingly driven by replacement rather than growth,” Scherer said. “Replacement being today’s most significant driver for decarbonization.”<br/>