IATA still expects air travel recovery by 2024 but warns of Russia-Ukraine risks

The Omicron variant of Covid-19 failed to knock the air travel industry off its pandemic recovery path, according to global airline association IATA, with passenger numbers still expected to exceed pre-crisis levels in 2024. “There is a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic,” said IATA DG Willie Walsh on 1 March as the association gave an update on its long-term demand forecast. IATA cautions, however, that its forecast does not incorporate the downside risks associated with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “In general, air transport is resilient against shocks and this conflict is unlikely to impact the long-term growth of air transport,” IATA says. “It is too early to estimate what the near-term consequences will be for aviation, but it is clear that there are downside risks, in particular in markets with exposure to the conflict. Sensitivity factors will include the geographic extent, severity and time period for sanctions and/or airspace closures,” it continues, adding: “These impacts would be felt most severely in Russia, Ukraine and neighbouring areas.” The airlines body further highlights rising energy prices and the avoidance of Russian airspace as potentially having “broader implications” for the industry, as would any harm to “consumer confidence and economic activity”. It notes that Russia was the 11th largest market for air passenger numbers globally pre-Covid, partly driven by a large domestic market, with Ukraine ranked 48th. Nevertheless, IATA is still forecasting that global air traveller numbers will reach 4b in 2024 – a figure that would represent 103% of the 2019 total.<br/>