China Eastern 737 crash clues point to few plausible causes

Aviation safety experts increasingly see only a few plausible reasons why a China Eastern Airlines Boeing 737-800 plunged into the ground on 21 March, killing all 132 people aboard. Details about the crash remain sparse, but the information available seems to suggest either that the jet suffered some type of incredibly unusual flight-control problem, or that one of its pilots put the 737 into a dive. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), which is leading the investigation, has not yet said what it thinks caused the crash. Although aviation safety experts caution against drawing conclusions based on incomplete information they see a limited number of possible causes. “That kind of vertical dive, without a radio call of any kind from the flightcrew, could clearly indicate a human activity to make that happen,” says aviation safety consultant and former NTSB member John Goglia. By “human activity”, he means a pilot deliberately commanding the jet to dive. “Nobody can come up with a mechanical failure mode that would make the airplane behave the way it did,” Goglia adds. Aviation safety expert John Cox, who works at consultancy Safety Operating Systems, says “it is entirely possible that it is a deliberate act… I would not take it off the table”. However, Cox, a former airline pilot who flew 737s, speculates that some unusual type of mechanical issue, or perhaps inaccurate flight data, could also be the cause. “Could it have been an autopilot-induced trim runaway? Theoretically, I can make that case,” Cox says. “But this airplane doesn’t have a history [of] doing anything like that.”<br/>