US pilot staffing situation is complex and will take years to sort out

Much ink has been spilled about the pilot situation in the U.S., with many regional airlines saying they face a shortage, larger carriers saying they are experiencing elevated attrition, and the biggest airlines reporting training backlogs. All of this adds up to dropped destinations, fewer flights than planned, and disrupted travel plans as airlines reactively prune schedules. “Pilots were stuck in the school house,” Alaska Airlines CEO Ben Minicucci said in April after the airline suffered a wave of staffing-related cancellations earlier that month. “So we’re de-risking the operation a little bit to give our pilots schoolhouse just a little bit of breathing room as we train them.” Alaska and JetBlue Airways, which both face similar staffing issues, have made the deepest cuts to summer flying. From April 5 to May 17, Alaska reduced planned Q3 capacity by 12% and JetBlue by 10%, according to Cowen & Co. research. American Airlines and Southwest Airlines, both of which have acknowledged pilot training backlogs, have decreased planned capacity 6% and nearly 5%, respectively. “We’re sizing the airline for the resources that we have,” American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said in April. The situation raises one fiercely debated question in the airline industry: Is there a pilot shortage? The number of new airline transport pilot, or ATP, certifications suggests that there is one. The FAA only issued 4,928 ATPs and restricted ATPs — certificates issued to pilots who graduate from four-year university programs that only need 1,000 hours instead of 1,500, for example — in 2021, according to the Regional Airlines Association (RAA). That is less than half of the estimated 12,000 pilots the industry plans to hire this year, with the balance expected to come from other airlines, including regionals, low-cost carriers, and mid-tier players.<br/>