Eurocontrol warns fresh supply-demand challenges ahead

European air navigation body Eurocontrol sees “huge challenges” for the region’s air traffic network this summer when it comes to matching capacity with demand, even as it projects economic headwinds are likely to prevent a full recovery to pre-pandemic flight activity until 2025. Eurocontrol had in its June outlook expected a full restoration of flight activity in Europe to occur during 2024. However, in an October outlook it put that back to 2025 under its base scenario as a result of economic headwinds and capacity challenges in European aviation this coming summer. It has reiterated this view in a fresh review of 2022 and outlook for the year ahead. “The recovery to 2019 levels is now expected to take place during 2025 – one year later than forecast in June 2022,” it says. “The base scenario is based on GDP remaining weak for most European states, inflation (including the jet fuel price) impacting demand, and lower passenger confidence/propensity to fly on economic grounds.” While its more optimistic higher-case scenario – which assumes higher GDP growth, a lower impact on demand from inflation and stronger passenger confidence – envisages pre-pandemic levels reached as soon as this summer, Eurocontrol notes that its base scenario has so far proved the most accurate trajectory since the pandemic hit. A lower-case scenario, which includes the potential for the periodic re-imposition of Covid-related travel restrictions, would not see parity in flight activity with 2019 reached until 2028. European flight activity across 2022 stood at 83% of pre-pandemic levels, but strengthened as the year progressed and has been consistently at 86-88% since May. Story has more.<br/>