Global air traffic will boom this year, returning to pre-pandemic levels in June, according to a new report. On Monday, international aircraft leasing company Avolon said it expected a full recovery in passenger traffic over the coming months, led by the reopening of markets in Asia, especially China. Andy Cronin, the company’s CEO, said in a statement that China would serve as the main driver, helping push up global activity after “a pandemic-driven two-thirds drop in traffic.” China scrapped its quarantine requirements last week after three years, prompting businesses around the world to prepare for the return of the world’s largest outbound travel market. The news has further brightened the outlook for the aviation sector, which already experienced “a 70% recovery in passenger traffic last year led by recovery in Europe and North America,” Avolon noted. In 2023, airlines are expecting more good news: They’re projected to finally regain their financial footing.<br/>
general
The cramped, damp and poorly lit airplane toilet is among the scourges of air travel, a source of dread for young and old alike. But the deafening “swoosh” of the airplane lavatory may have finally found a higher calling: helping government scientists detect deadly viruses entering the United States. As Covid-19 cases explode in China and new viral threats loom, the Biden administration is ramping up surveillance of biological samples from international passengers arriving at U.S. airports to scan for new virus variants and other hazards to Americans’ health. Late last month, amid concerns over new variants expected to emerge from China’s massive Covid outbreak, the Biden administration expanded a program started in late 2021 to collect voluntary nasal swabs from arriving passengers to determine what Covid strains are entering the country. It set up new operations at Seattle-Tacoma International in December and LAX in early January to target more flights carrying passengers coming from China, and went from monitoring around 55 flights from Asia each day to 260. At the same time, after a successful test run at New York’s JFK Airport, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is pursuing talks with airlines and port authorities to start collecting samples from long-haul international flights’ wastewater after they land. The small but growing Traveler Genomic Surveillance program, run by the CDC with a biotech firm and a company that collects samples, is seen by administration officials and public health experts as part of a revolution in biosafety infrastructure — and a critical plank of national security in the post-pandemic era. As it expands geographically and sets its sights on new pathogens, it could function as an early warning system for where and when dangerous viruses and bacteria, natural or otherwise, enter the country.<br/>
US and European airlines will benefit from pent-up demand for travel to China after its recent border reopening, but route approvals, fresh COVID-19 testing rules and not enough large aircraft remain barriers to rising sales, analysts and industry officials say. Travel is returning to China, the world's largest outbound tourism market worth $255b in 2019, after the country ended mandatory quarantines on Jan. 8. Airfares from China are now 160% higher than before the pandemic, data from travel firm ForwardKeys shows, due to limited supply. A round-trip fare from San Francisco to Shanghai on United Airlines for a week-long trip in early March costs $3,852 in economy class and $18,369 in business class, according to a Reuters search on the airline's website. Global airlines are running only 11% of 2019 capacity levels to and from China in January, Cirium data shows, but the figure is expected to hit 25% by April. Booking website Expedia said it saw US-China and Europe-China searches double after the reopening announcement. Chinese airlines, with ample staff and widebody planes, and a cost and time advantage of roughly two hours from flying a more direct route using Russian airspace, are expected to be early winners. But US and European airlines, which have focused traditionally on the strong business travel market to China, and often cater more to the preferences of Western passengers, are poised to benefit from companies willing to pay a premium to rekindle face-to-face ties. Trips to China "are already on the books for many companies and travellers as they kick off a new business year," said Suzanne Neufang, CE of the Global Business Travel Association.<br/>
Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey, US, has commenced operations at its new $2.7bn Terminal A. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey said that the new terminal is replacing the terminal that opened in 1973. It added that the new terminal offers modern passenger amenities, digital technology and dining and retail options. Featuring nearly 1m square feet of area, Terminal A is equipped with 33 gates and has been designed to handle larger aircraft. It also has a common-use check-in area, and security and baggage claim areas. Out of 33 gates, 21 gates have become operational and will be used by Air Canada, American Airlines, jetBlue and United Airlines. The remaining 12 gates are scheduled to become operational later this year. The terminal has the capacity to handle an estimated 13.6m passengers a year. With Terminal A becoming operational, the airport authority estimates that it would generate more than $4.6b in regional economic activity, create more than 2,500 jobs and provide more than $1.9bn in wages. Port Authority executive director Rick Cotton said: “The first airport operations out of the world-class Terminal A mark a truly historic milestone for Newark Liberty. “This is an important step forward in our vision to transform the airport into a state-of-the-art gateway to the world.nWe are committed to continually elevating the passenger experience by building modern, 21st-century facilities like this terminal, delivering superior amenities and a real new Jersey sense of place.”<br/>
Two of the leading figures in aviation sparred publicly about sustainability, airport disruption and how the war in Ukraine is impacting Europe's skies in a rare interview-turned-debate at an industry conference in Dublin on Monday. Willie Walsh, outspoken head of the world's biggest airline trade body, IATA, joined the European Union's top permanent transport official Henrik Hololei on stage at the Airline Economics conference in the world's aviation finance capital. In a heavily regulated sector, airlines and others typically save their lobbying for discreet, closed-doors meetings. But the two influential figureheads brought their frank views to the stage, arguing in front of hundreds of financiers. Hololei, who is originally from the Baltic nation of Estonia, once part of the Soviet Union, repeatedly pointed to the impact of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the disruption caused by the closure of Russian airspace to many Western countries. But Walsh wanted to know what could be done to lift that closure, which threatens to penalise some Western airlines at the expense of Chinese and other carriers that continue to fly over Russia. Hololei was blunt: "Russia to lose the war, to start with. That would help for sure." He added there would be no "business as usual" if Russian airspace did reopen. "If one day we will have the opportunity to see the opening up of Russian airspace, one thing has to disappear: the Siberian overflight royalties, " he said, referring to fees collected from airlines by Moscow for routes that fly over Siberia. Story has more.<br/>
The world's largest aircraft lessor AerCap Monday warned that delivery problems at Boeing and Airbus were likely to last years and that manufacturers were giving airlines too little notice about delays. Over-promising and under-delivery is likely to be an issue with manufacturers "for years to come," AerCap CE Aengus Kelly told the annual Airline Economics conference in Dublin. "The challenge with the OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) today is the short dated nature of how they're notifying airlines of the delays," Kelly said. "If you're an airline looking towards the summer of 2023, you've sold the seats, you've hired the crews, you've booked the slots and if the airplane doesn't show up, you're in real trouble." Some airlines are opting to buy 20-year-old aircraft rather than take a risk on new models, he said. "I think candidly that we have seen Airbus sell too much on massive optimism about what they could deliver," said Kelly, one of Airbus' largest customers. "We've seen several revisions of what Airbus thought they would deliver in 2022. I think we're going to see that the feature of the OEMs for years to come." The CEO of rival lessor Air Lease Corp (AL.N) made a similar warning earlier on Monday, saying manufacturers would struggle to meet their delivery commitments in 2023 after over-promising to airlines last year.<br/>
A senior aviation industry analyst has voiced caution over the speed of recovery in civil planemaker deliveries and Chinese international air travel - two key barometers in the aviation industry’s path back to its pre-COVID growth trajectory. “New aircraft deliveries remain below their 2018 peak and will not exceed that volume until 2024” rather than 2023 as previously forecast, Rob Morris, global head of consulting at Ascend by Cirium, told the Airline Economics conference. On China’s decision last month to lift zero-COVID policies, Morris said there had so far been little change in airline schedules for international travel. “China will come back, but it will come back perhaps a little more slowly than we expect,” he said. <br/>