Chinese New Year without China’s zero-Covid policy to put airlines to the test

China’s weeklong Chinese New Year holiday, which kicks off on Sunday, will be a key test for its aviation sector. As millions of people travel home to be with their families – the first proper reunions since Covid-19 – the question is whether the same chaos seen at airports in other countries as they reopened will be replicated. Endless queues, a lack of check-in staff and insufficient luggage handlers were common complaints worldwide once virus restrictions were lifted and people took to the skies. While there’s little evidence yet of that happening in China, mayhem could still ensue as big-city office workers – more likely to fly than catch a train – pack their bags. “As North America and Europe opened up, passengers experienced significant disruptions as a consequence of resource constraints – a shortage of staff at airlines, customs, immigration and security,” said Mr Rob Morris, the global head of consultancy at Ascend by Cirium. “There’s a risk China might see the same if demand rebounds rapidly.” Certainly the desire to travel is there. Flight bookings are up 15 per cent this Chinese New Year versus last, according to Trip.com, while scheduled inbound flights for the first quarter have increased almost 150 per cent compared with the first quarter of 2022, data from aviation analytics company Cirium show. And with nations from South Korea to Australia imposing restrictions on visitors from China, many expect international travel to rebound more slowly, putting additional strain on domestic networks. “The willingness to travel has started to rebound strongly among Chinese who have recovered from Covid but it takes time for that to be reflected in outbound travel routes,” UBS Securities’ head of China leisure and transport research Chen Xin said. “Domestic travel destinations are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries during the upcoming Chinese New Year.”<br/>