The global passenger fleet is forecast increase by around 22,000 aircraft – or 86% – between end-2021 and end-2041 to meet growing demand for air travel, according to Ascend by Cirium. Releasing its latest 20-year forecast on 24 January, the consultancy arm of aviation analytics firm Cirium says the increase would take the global passenger fleet to around 47,700 aircraft as 2041 ends, from 25,700 at the end of 2021. That total reflects 43,390 new passenger aircraft deliveries – worth $2.8t – plus around 19,000 retirements and approximately 2,480 aircraft leaving the passenger fleet via cargo conversion. The Cirium Fleet Forecast is based on passenger traffic – measured in revenue passenger kilometres – growing by 3.6% annually over the 20-year period. Cirium notes that the in-service passenger fleet is only forecast to return to pre-Covid levels in mid-2023, meaning up to four years of “normal” fleet growth have been lost. “The new Cirium Fleet Forecast shows a positive long-term outlook for aviation,” says Rob Morris, Ascend by Cirium’s global head of consultancy. “The industry is undergoing structural changes, but remains on course to return to traditional growth paths by 2025.” Single-aisle jets will dominate deliveries, Cirium suggests, at round 70% of the total units and 56% of the total value through to 2041. The annual growth in the twin-aisle fleet – 3.2% – will be behind that seen for single-aisles – 3.7% – “as the recovery of long-haul traffic continues to lag”, it states. The regional aircraft fleet is forecast to grow by 1.1% annually, with turboprop deliveries expected to grow at a faster rate than those for jets across the 20-year period. <br/>
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The US CDC is ironing out the “logistical and legal” aspects of testing wastewater from airplanes for coronavirus variants as it continues to explore such a Covid-19 monitoring program. The agency is still “figuring out how to operationalize this program,” a person close to CDC discussions said, adding that there are “logistical and legal” hurdles that need to be sorted out before the program “would be operational.” Some of the agency’s partners tell CNN that they are poised to help roll out this potential next frontier in the nation’s Covid-19 surveillance effort. Monitoring sewage for traces of coronavirus variants is a “validated” scientific process – no longer in its pilot phase – and airplanes are a logical next step, said Matt McKnight, general manager at Boston-based synthetic biology company Ginkgo Bioworks. Its Concentric by Ginkgo biosecurity and public health unit has been chosen to partner in the CDC’s traveler-based genomic surveillance program to detect Covid-19 and flu variants among international travelers. For now, the use of testing services to collect and analyze airplane wastewater for variants “is an active conversation between CDC, the White House and the airlines,” McKnight said. But the process of testing airplane wastewater itself is “validated methodology, and it is a program that can be run actively,” he added. “The system is ready to go.”<br/>
Transport Minister Omar Alghabra said Tuesday the government will overhaul the airline passenger bill of rights in response to travellers' claims that the system is fundamentally flawed. Critics have dismissed the airline regulations as inadequate since they were introduced by the Liberal government in 2017. Until now, Ottawa has been reluctant to make any changes. Major travel disruptions last summer — and a problem-plagued Christmas travel season — have made it clear that reforms are necessary to better protect passengers from airlines that don't live up to their service standards, Alghabra told reporters on the sidelines of a federal cabinet retreat in Hamilton. "Stay tuned — you'll see action, you'll see new tools introduced. Mark my words. I feel the frustrations of Canadians. I heard them. Canadians don't want to see angry politicians, they want to see politicians take action," he said. Alghabra said regulatory reform — and possibly new legislation — will be introduced this spring to bolster passengers' rights. It will be one of the government's priorities when Parliament resumes sitting next week, he said. A major winter storm in the days before and after Christmas wreaked havoc on the travel industry, leaving passengers stranded as airlines cancelled hundreds of flights. Sunwing, a leisure carrier that primarily serves passengers travelling to vacation destinations down south, left an untold number of passengers in Mexico when it suspended some routes. The disruptions prompted some 7,000 complaints to the airline from passengers who were left out-of-pocket by the delays. While bad weather is hard to avoid in a country like Canada, Alghabra said changes are still necessary to make the travel experience more tolerable. Over the holidays, passengers complained not only of weather-related delays but also inadequate communication from the airlines about rescheduled flights and lost bags. Airlines can be expected to push back against any proposed changes.<br/>
Travelers reached the airport in Mexico's tourist hot spot of Cancun without problem on Tuesday after a protest by local taxi drivers against ride-share app Uber left many stranded the day before. Angry taxi drivers on Monday blocked the main road between Cancun's airport and central tourist zone, forcing tourists to trek on foot or ride on police trucks to catch their flights. Two airport representatives said there were no blockades or confrontations related to the taxis on Tuesday. Taxi unions were angered by a court ruling this month that Uber Technologies Inc (UBER.N) drivers were exempt from having to obtain a permit, called a medallion, to operate, as taxi drivers are required to do. This effectively ended a years-long taxi monopoly in the region. Videos on social media showed taxi drivers harassing Uber drivers and their clients in recent days, with local media reporting several arrests of taxi drivers. The events prompted an official alert from the U.S. State Department on Monday for the state of Quintana Roo, where Cancun and other tourist hot spots are located. "Disputes between these services and local taxi unions have occasionally turned violent," the alert said. A spokesperson for Uber Mexico said that the court's decision "affirmed a basic and undeniable fact" that Uber trips are not public transportation.<br/>
Europe's chief aviation regulator pointed on Tuesday to a narrowing gap in talks with Boeing over cockpit design requirements for the future 777X airliner. European regulators have been seen at odds with Boeing for more than a year over changes they want in flight controls of the latest version of the 777 - a stand-off that has contributed to a cumulative five-year delay, according to industry sources. "We are hopefully converging," Patrick Ky, executive director of the EASA said when asked about the progress of ongoing discussions on the 777X. Boeing declined to comment. The US FAA did not immediately reply to a request for comment. Ky's remarks come shortly after industry sources said EASA held talks earlier this month with Boeing and the FAA to review certification expectations for the delayed jet. Ky did not specify where he saw signs of "convergence", but industry sources have said EASA is challenging the electronic safety net built in to flight controls of the 777X, whose introduction has gradually been pushed back to 2025. Officially, the European agency takes a back seat to the FAA in certifying US airplanes. But the development of the world's largest twin-engined jetliner is widely seen as a test of EASA's increasing influence following a crisis over the Boeing 737 MAX. A major factor in two MAX crashes that killed 346 people was a single point of failure embedded in the flight controls. Although the decades-old architecture at the core of the 737 is radically different from the electronic cockpit of the larger and newer 777, EASA's approach reflects a sharper regulatory focus on safety backups in the aftermath of the MAX crisis. EASA has set out an approach that could prompt Boeing to add an extra fallback to guarantee that a single invisible failure within the cockpit's electronics cannot trigger simultaneous outages - a design precaution known as "dissimilarity".<br/>
Nearly 500 flights to and from the South Korean tourist island of Jeju have been cancelled because of harsh winter weather, authorities said on Tuesday, disrupting the final day of the Lunar New Year holiday for travellers. All 466 domestic flights and 10 international flights scheduled to fly to and from Jeju International Airport were cancelled, an airport spokesman told Reuters. Korean Air Lines confirmed it had cancelled 88 of its daily flights in and out of the island. Tuesday saw some of the coldest temperatures of the season, and heavy snow and strong winds were expected to hit southern parts of the country including Jeju. Weather authorities issued cold wave alerts for most of the country, with morning lows dropping to minus 16.4 Celsius (2.5 Fahrenheit) in Seoul and to minus 25.5C in the northern county of Cheorwon, according to Yonhap news agency. Yonhap also reported that hundreds of ferry voyages across the country were also cancelled. Tuesday was the last day of the Lunar New Year holiday, which is one of South Korea's two biggest holidays.<br/>
Face masks or coverings will no longer be required indoors in Korea starting Monday, except in high-risk places such as hospitals and on public transportation like buses and trains. Places that will be mask-free include schools, kindergartens, child care centers and department stores. Also on the mask-free list are outdoor and indoor spaces at subway and train stations and airports. The requirement to wear face masks at virus-prone facilities such as hospitals, long-term care facilities, pharmacies and public transportation like chartered buses, taxis and flights is still in place. The mandate will begin after the four-day Seollal holiday from Saturday to Tuesday to avoid a potential post-holiday surge. Indoor masking will only remain “highly recommended” by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. It will be strongly advised for one’s safety and those prone to the virus in congested areas and if the ventilation is deemed poor. Those who have come into close contact with a COVID-19 patient, a person showing COVID-19-like symptoms or a person with a high risk of the virus are also encouraged to wear masks. In addition, fines for not wearing masks will only be applied to places where the indoor mandate remains in place. A policy violation is punishable with a fine of up to 100,000 won ($81). The seven-day quarantine requirement for those infected is still valid. Health authorities said the decision comes as COVID-19 infection cases have been waning, and the country has also been seeing a stabilized virus situation.<br/>
Indonesia is planning more flights and social media campaign to lure Chinese tourists to Bali to capitalise on the international reopening of borders for Asia’s largest economy earlier this month. The South-East Asian country will enable direct flights from Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou to Denpasar and intensify its TikTok campaign for the top holiday destination, according to the government. "We can’t deny that our 2023 foreign tourist arrival goal will also depend on Chinese tourists,” Tourism and Creative Economy Minister Sandiaga Uno said in a briefing on Tuesday (Jan 24), adding that Lion Air, Batik Air and a Chinese airline were among those preparing scheduled flights between China and the island. Indonesia joins most South-East Asian countries in welcoming back tourists from China. The region has been especially welcoming to them in contrast to the US, Italy and Japan that have instead tightened travel restrictions on concerns of China’s rising Covid-19 infections. In a sign of strong support for the Chinese travellers, Bali governor I Wayan Koster personally welcomed a Lion Air chartered flight from Shenzen carrying 210 passengers on Sunday, marking the return of the tourists to the island for the first time in three years. President Joko Widodo, who removed all remaining Covid curbs at the end of last year in Indonesia, said that local vaccination coverage and antibody levels were high enough to prevent a resurgence in infections. He has repeatedly said the government would not impose restrictions on Chinese tourists. Still, Chinese tourists are not likely to come in droves, yet. A survey published last week found that about 40% of Chinese travellers aren’t planning to venture overseas this year despite the sudden easing of restrictions, mainly because of the financial impact of Covid-19 on salaries and the economy.<br/>
As Boeing battles disruption in its supply chains, investors will be looking for the largest US planemaker to satisfy questions about its planned ramp-up for commercial jets and set aside concerns over losses in major defense projects when it reports earnings Wednesday. Boeing has seen 737 MAX customer demand recover briskly after two crashes and the COVID-19 pandemic battered the airline industry. CE Dave Calhoun said in October Boeing has “mitigated these existential moments.” Boeing is expected to report an increase in Q4 revenue to $20.38b from $14.79b in the same quarter last year, with earnings of 26 cents a share, according to Refinitiv data. However, analysts warn Boeing still faces major risk to increasing aircraft production, as supply chain recovery and additional regulatory requirements could delay schedules. "It's not just a simple production recovery story," said Aerodynamic Advisory analyst Richard Aboulafia, who pointed to Boeing's backlog of hundreds of undelivered 737 and 787 planes sitting in storage. Boeing plans to increase production of its flagship 737 MAX family of narrowbody airliners, which make up most of the company's sales volume, from 31 planes a month to about 50 by 2025. Executives previously pointed to supply chain bottlenecks as the major driver for lagging 737 MAX production, and investors will be listening for details about how many aircraft are expected to be manufactured and delivered this year.<br/>
Vertical lift aircraft have existed for more than a century in the form of helicopters. But the $49b industry faces a rapidly emerging threat. An estimated 200 companies are working to build electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOLs), a new type of small passenger aircraft designed for transportation within congested urban environments. “Helicopters are very expensive to operate for a number of reasons, but the biggest reason is that they have multiple points of failure, which eVTOL aircraft won’t,” said Michael Leskinen, president of United Airlines Ventures, which has invested in startups in the space called Eve and Archer Aviation. “The electrification makes the aircraft safer. Safer aircraft also becomes less costly to maintain.” They’re not on the market yet, but they could eventually become the air taxis of the future. Before they get there, the manufacturers need certification from the FAA and other regulatory agencies. Some companies have optimistically set 2025 as the year when operations will get underway.<br/>
Some US business jet buyers are looking for new aircraft whose current owners are having trouble making payments ahead of delivery, in a possible sign of early cracks in what has been a soaring market up to now. From preowned planes selling more gradually to flattening business jet traffic, demand is beginning to moderate, aviation lawyers, brokers and analysts said. While defaults remain rare, those signs of uneven demand are drawing attention. One business jet executive said he has seen a few distressed planes and customers who are late on payments due to financial hardships, some of whom are from parts of Eastern Europe or Latin America where economic growth is expected to slow. "We're watching to see if it will level off as a soft landing versus something else," said the executive, who asked not to be identified. Investors will be watching for clues when Gulfstream-maker General Dynamics Corp and Cessna business jet maker Textron Inc report earnings on Wednesday. Private jet makers have assured investors their billion-dollar backlogs and ongoing demand would cushion any blow from a possible recession. Planemakers rarely disclose cases of distressed planes, but argue they can easily resell unwanted models. "If, for any reason, the final sale of an aircraft does not occur, the sales team works to match the aircraft with a similar customer's mission, location and timeline," said Lannie O'Bannion, a senior vice president at Textron's aviation unit.<br/>