Eurocontrol says pent-up demand ‘vivid’ but full traffic recovery still set for 2025

Eurocontrol has revised slightly upwards its forecast for European flight movements in 2023 and 2024 but continues to predict that 2019 levels will only be reached in 2025. Outlining its latest seven-year forecast on 3 April, the European network manager cites “vivid pent-up demand” – reflected in “solid bookings and strong tourist flows in southern Europe” – as driving the upgraded forecast. “After a strong summer 2022, the industry is further recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic with China reopened since mid-January 2023,” Eurocontrol adds. It says, however, that overall flight numbers are continuing to track its “base” scenario, which means movements are still not expected to reach 2019 levels – 11.1m flights – until 2025, having hit 10.3 and 10.9m in 2023 and 2024 respectively under that scenario. There were some 9.2m flights in 2022, representing a huge improvement from the 5m and 6.2m recorded in 2020 and 2021 respectively. While the air travel comeback continues, factors influencing Eurocontrol’s forecast range include Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is contributing to a “degradation” of the economic outlook in Europe, higher energy prices and a “cost of living crisis” that might affect travel demand. Eurocontrol adds that the cargo segment has been “strongly” impacted by the war, ”due to constrained operations”. Furthermore, while long-haul flows are recovering well, the closure of Russian airspace is expected to weigh on Europe-Asia flows, while airlines and airports may again find capacity capped by staff shortages this summer, Eurocontrol explains.<br/>