Global airline fleet will grow by one-third over next decade: Oliver Wyman
The global airline fleet has reached 98% of its pre-pandemic size and is projected to grow by one-third more by 2033. The total number of commercial jets is expected to expand from about 27,400 to more than 36,000 aircraft in 10 years, a growth rate of 33%, according to consulting firm Oliver Wyman’s 2023-2033 Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast. “We anticipate a record number of aircraft deliveries over the next 10 years, despite current supply chain constraints that may make it hard to meet this year’s targets,” notes the analysis, which was published on 12 April. Some 20,600 new production aircraft are projected to be delivered worldwide by 2033, easily outpacing the retirement of older jets. But the report’s authors acknowledge that higher production targets from Boeing and Airbus “would be difficult to meet even if supply chains were functioning well”. India is currently the fastest-growing market for commercial jets, with the study’sauthors pointing to Air India’s recent orders for hundreds of Boeing and Airbus aircraft as evidence of sky-high demand in the country. By 2033, the global fleet of narrowbody jets is expected to grow to about 23,400 from 16,400, and the total number of widebodies will increase to about 6,900 from 5,500 jets. Notably, the global fleet of regional jets is projected to grow only modestly during the same period, with deliveries of regional jets (1,400) barely outpacing retirements (1,200). The number of regional jets in North America and Western Europe is expected to decrease to roughly 1,700 from 2,100 over the forecast period, with countries such as France recently moving away from air travel as a means of regional transportation – which could become a trend in Western Europe, Oliver Wyman says. Regional airline service has already suffered most acutely from the labour market shortfalls, the report notes: “The gap between the number of pilots needed and those available has already led to reductions in service to less popular and more rural destinations and has hit regional airlines hardest.” Indeed, shortages of qualified mechanics and pilots are expected to continue to hinder the entire industry throughout the next decade.<br/>
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Global airline fleet will grow by one-third over next decade: Oliver Wyman
The global airline fleet has reached 98% of its pre-pandemic size and is projected to grow by one-third more by 2033. The total number of commercial jets is expected to expand from about 27,400 to more than 36,000 aircraft in 10 years, a growth rate of 33%, according to consulting firm Oliver Wyman’s 2023-2033 Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast. “We anticipate a record number of aircraft deliveries over the next 10 years, despite current supply chain constraints that may make it hard to meet this year’s targets,” notes the analysis, which was published on 12 April. Some 20,600 new production aircraft are projected to be delivered worldwide by 2033, easily outpacing the retirement of older jets. But the report’s authors acknowledge that higher production targets from Boeing and Airbus “would be difficult to meet even if supply chains were functioning well”. India is currently the fastest-growing market for commercial jets, with the study’sauthors pointing to Air India’s recent orders for hundreds of Boeing and Airbus aircraft as evidence of sky-high demand in the country. By 2033, the global fleet of narrowbody jets is expected to grow to about 23,400 from 16,400, and the total number of widebodies will increase to about 6,900 from 5,500 jets. Notably, the global fleet of regional jets is projected to grow only modestly during the same period, with deliveries of regional jets (1,400) barely outpacing retirements (1,200). The number of regional jets in North America and Western Europe is expected to decrease to roughly 1,700 from 2,100 over the forecast period, with countries such as France recently moving away from air travel as a means of regional transportation – which could become a trend in Western Europe, Oliver Wyman says. Regional airline service has already suffered most acutely from the labour market shortfalls, the report notes: “The gap between the number of pilots needed and those available has already led to reductions in service to less popular and more rural destinations and has hit regional airlines hardest.” Indeed, shortages of qualified mechanics and pilots are expected to continue to hinder the entire industry throughout the next decade.<br/>
