Global freight cycle may have reached lowest point
Global freight volumes show signs of having bottomed out in Q1, signalling the industrial cycle may be near its trough, which could provide some support to oil prices later in 2023. Global freight volumes fell 1.1% during the first three months of 2023 compared with a year earlier, according to the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (“World trade monitor”, CPB, May 25). But volumes were up by 0.2% in March compared with the prior year, after declining 2.5% in February and 1.2% in January, providing tentative signs the cyclical trough may have been reached. Singapore’s maritime container throughput climbed to a record 3.26m twenty-foot equivalent units in April and was 7% higher than a year ago. At London’s Heathrow airport, cargo was still down 7% in the three months from February to April compared with a year earlier, but that was a much smaller decline than the 14% in October to December. At Narita in Japan, air freight was down 22% in the three months from January to March, but that was a smaller decline than the 26% between November and January. In the United States, there were fewer signs the manufacturing and freight cycle was nearing its trough, which given the size and centrality of the country in the world economy makes the outlook less clear. US railroads hauled 3.1m shipping containers in the first three months of 2023 compared with 3.4m in the same period in 2022. US trucking firms reported activity levels were down by less than 1% in the first three months of 2023 but there was a noticeably weak end to the quarter with a decline of 5% in March. At the nine largest US container ports, the number of shipping containers handled was down 16% in April and 17% for the first four months of 2023 compared with the prior year. Reflecting steadier demand, the cost of containerised ocean shipping has been stable since the middle of March after declining almost continuously for a year, according to the Freightos Baltic Exchange global container index.<br/>
https://portal.staralliance.com/cms/news/hot-topics/2023-05-26/general/global-freight-cycle-may-have-reached-lowest-point
https://portal.staralliance.com/cms/logo.png
Global freight cycle may have reached lowest point
Global freight volumes show signs of having bottomed out in Q1, signalling the industrial cycle may be near its trough, which could provide some support to oil prices later in 2023. Global freight volumes fell 1.1% during the first three months of 2023 compared with a year earlier, according to the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (“World trade monitor”, CPB, May 25). But volumes were up by 0.2% in March compared with the prior year, after declining 2.5% in February and 1.2% in January, providing tentative signs the cyclical trough may have been reached. Singapore’s maritime container throughput climbed to a record 3.26m twenty-foot equivalent units in April and was 7% higher than a year ago. At London’s Heathrow airport, cargo was still down 7% in the three months from February to April compared with a year earlier, but that was a much smaller decline than the 14% in October to December. At Narita in Japan, air freight was down 22% in the three months from January to March, but that was a smaller decline than the 26% between November and January. In the United States, there were fewer signs the manufacturing and freight cycle was nearing its trough, which given the size and centrality of the country in the world economy makes the outlook less clear. US railroads hauled 3.1m shipping containers in the first three months of 2023 compared with 3.4m in the same period in 2022. US trucking firms reported activity levels were down by less than 1% in the first three months of 2023 but there was a noticeably weak end to the quarter with a decline of 5% in March. At the nine largest US container ports, the number of shipping containers handled was down 16% in April and 17% for the first four months of 2023 compared with the prior year. Reflecting steadier demand, the cost of containerised ocean shipping has been stable since the middle of March after declining almost continuously for a year, according to the Freightos Baltic Exchange global container index.<br/>
