general

The US aviation system is bracing for two simultaneous disruptions at the end of this week – a looming government shutdown and the expiration of a key aviation law. Officials say the double-barrel threat would result in millions of dollars in losses daily, scramble efforts to rebuild the air traffic control system, set back technology improvements and further strain the already-stressed aviation system that suffered a series of runway close calls this year. Rep. Steve Cohen, the top Democrat on the House Aviation subcommittee, warned Wednesday the shutdown may mean “cancellations at airports will occur, and it will negatively impact the flying public.” Government officials are particularly concerned about how a shutdown would disrupt the air traffic control training pipeline, which is still recovering after the FAA closed its controller academy at the height of the coronavirus pandemic. Intensive training takes years and would pause during a government shutdown. Delaying the current crop of students could create a backlog for the next round of new hires. “The complexity of the hiring and training process means even a shutdown lasting a few days could mean we will not hit our staffing and hiring targets next year,” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said Wednesday. “There is no good time for a government shutdown. But this is a particularly bad time for a government shutdown.” The shutdown would also put strain on the Transportation Security Administration. Nearly all – 58,000 – of the agency’s 61,000 employees would continue to report to work, including those screening airplane passengers. But they would do so without getting paid. A shutdown could cost the travel industry $140m daily, according to an estimate from the US Travel Association, which analyzed industry losses from a major government shutdown several years ago. That includes direct losses from government officials foregoing travel, but also canceled trips as attractions like national parks close. There is also concern that the Saturday expiration of a dense set of policy instructions will leave the FAA unable to conduct important business.<br/>

Mexican authorities should postpone planned flight cuts out of the capital airport until the summer 2024 season, which begins in March, an international group that represents major airlines said on Thursday. The IATA said in a statement to Reuters that it opposed the cuts, but stipulated that if they must happen, they should begin in March, not in January as currently scheduled, to "allow airlines time to adjust schedules." The government announced the flight cuts at the end of August, sparking an outcry from the aviation sector. The measure would limit flights per hour to 43, from 52 at the Mexico City International Airport to reduce airspace saturation and divert more traffic to the newer, state-run Felipe Angeles International Airport (AIFA). The cuts were originally set for November, but were postponed to January after protests from airlines. "The airlines already had tickets sold (for the holiday season)," President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said in a press conference this month. IATA stressed airlines' need to plan ahead. "If a reduction is forced on the industry, this needs to be done in consultation and with sufficient lead time," it said. Lopez Obrador has criticized operations at the busy Mexico City International Airport and said there is "no pretext" for carriers to not move flights to AIFA, which is farther from the capital and provides fewer ground transportation options.<br/>

The view from Heathrow airport’s 87 metre-high control tower stretches more than 20 miles, overlooking the constant flow of aircraft taking off and landing. For nearly two years during the pandemic, those skies were unusually quiet. But the travel industry has since roared back to life, propelling the UK’s biggest airport towards its largest passenger numbers since 2019 and near its maximum capacity of 480,000 flights a year. While the boom in trade is welcome, it has also reignited one of the thorniest public policy debates in the UK: how best to expand the capacity of London’s five major international airports — or to what extent it should be increased at all at a time of rising anxiety over the industry’s environmental impact. At the centre of that equation is Heathrow, which has dropped from the second busiest airport at the turn of the century behind Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson to eighth place, trailing Istanbul and Dubai. It is a sobering demotion for Britain, the country that co-developed the supersonic Concorde jet, turned terminals into attractive shopping destinations and led a drive towards cheap package holidays and budget flights. Now its airports have suffered a series of recent embarrassments, from the failure of the air traffic control system in August to Gatwick this week cancelling flights because of staffing shortages at air traffic control. What happens next for Heathrow will fall to its incoming CE, Thomas Woldbye, from Copenhagen airport, who must decide how best to proceed with government-approved plans for a third runway. The decades-long discussion appeared to come to an end when the UK parliament voted in favour of the major expansion in 2018 and for other airports serving the capital such as Gatwick and Stansted to upgrade existing airfields. But just as Heathrow was poised to apply for planning permission, the outbreak of Covid-19 plunged commercial aviation into a battle for survival.  Now there are new calculations to be made, not least how to square expanding flight capacity with lowering emissions, and how to pay for the new runway and surrounding infrastructure at a time when inflation has pushed up financing and construction costs. <br/>

Central Asian nations have several options available for boosting air traffic, particularly if they focus on creating a more attractive environment for low-cost carriers. A recent Asian Development Bank report into the nine Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) countries highlighted that air traffic has largely recovered from the coronavirus pandemic, driven by LCCs. The CAREC region comprises Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan. It also includes China’s Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang regions, although these were not part of the ADB’s study. The ADB observes that in 2022 the overall CAREC region’s seat capacity hit 98% of pre-pandemic levels, while the Central Asian countries surpassed 2019 levels – the only region in the world to do so. A significant contributor to this strength was the rapid growth of FlyArystan, the low-cost unit of Kazakhstan carrier Air Astana. FlyArystan flew 3.3m passengers in 2022, compared with 700,000 in 2019. It has also become the region’s fourth largest airline. The LCC unit of Uzbekistan Airways, Uzbekistan Express, and foreign LCCs also contributed to the region’s traffic growth. Despite the positive traffic trend, the ADB believes much more needs to be done. “Rapid LCC growth over the remainder of this decade is critical for CAREC to achieve aspirations to improve connectivity—within and outside the region—and further grow tourism in the region,” says the ADB. “LCCs generate massive economic benefits as lower fares make air travel more affordable, stimulating demand in both the domestic and international markets. With higher volumes of traffic, there are more tourists staying in hotels, eating out, and visiting local attractions. More passenger traffic also supports expansion of airports and the overall aviation ecosystem, creating jobs.” <br/>

Faced with growing security concerns in East Asia, and looking at potential military use of civilian infrastructure, the Japanese government has selected 33 airports and ports in 10 prefectures as candidates for expansion, Nikkei has learned. The government will shortly begin discussions with prefectures and municipalities that manage the facilities to extend runways and expand docks, enabling the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) and the Japan Coast Guard to evacuate citizens or deploy troops in an emergency. The national security strategy revised at the end of last year included a plan to upgrade airports and ports in preparation for contingencies. The government will designate certain facilities as essential bases and allocate the necessary funds for upgrades in its fiscal 2024 budget proposal. The government has selected 14 airports and 19 ports, according to an unofficial document drafted in August and seen by Nikkei. At least 16 facilities are located in the Ryukyu Islands -- including Okinawa in southern Japan, and on the islands of Kyushu and Shikoku in the western part of the country. Emphasis was placed on areas near China, which is strengthening its military, and Taiwan, which many analysts say could become the focal point of an armed conflict in the near future. The list of airports includes Yonaguni, New Ishigaki, Miyako, and Naha in Okinawa prefecture, as well as Kagoshima and Miyazaki in Kyushu, and Kochi in Shikoku. These locations could serve as bases from which the SDF could deploy troops and supply fuel and food in the event of a contingency in Taiwan.<br/>

The number of commercial jet aircraft accidents globally inched higher in 2022 to 25 incidents, including three that killed a combined five people, but last year’s accident rate still declined from 2021. That is according to Boeing’s latest annual air accident report, which shows a continued trend of broadly improving aviation safety but highlights ongoing concerns, including persistent risks during initial and final phases of flight and high accident rates in Africa. “Accident rates continue to drop,” says Boeing vice-president of enterprise safety Elisabeth Martin. “In the last 20 years, we’ve seen a 45% decline in accident rates and a nearly 80% decline in fatal accidents.”Released on 28 September, Boeing’s latest Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents indexes accidents involving jet aircraft weighting more than 27,216kg (60,000lb) – meaning 70-seat regional jets and above. The 25 incidents last year included instances of tail strikes, runway excursions, landing-gear collapses, aircraft ground collisions and hard landings. The global airline industry logged 26.3m departures in 2022, equating to an accident rate of 0.95 per 1m departures. Of the 25 accidents in 2022, three killed a combined five people, none of whom were aboard aircraft. Those included a TAP Air Portugal Airbus A320neo that struck a motorcycle during landing in Conakry, Guinea on 2 September 2022, killing two people. On 18 November last year, a LATAM A320neo hit two fire engines while attempting to take-off from Lima, killing two people, and on 31 December 2022 a ground worker in Montgomery, Alabama was killed when ingested into the engine of an Embraer 175 operated by US regional airline Envoy for American Airlines. By comparison, there were 23 accidents involving large commercial jets in 2021, when airlines logged 21.6m flights, for an accident rate of 1.07 per million departures. Unlike prior versions of Boeing’s accident report, this year’s study breaks out data into more geographies, showing disparities between regions and particularly high accident rates in Africa.<br/>