Air travel is back to pre-pandemic levels with new turbulence ahead

Four lost years. That’s how long it’s taken the aviation industry to get back to where it stood before the pandemic. This week, global airline capacity is poised to finally surpass its corresponding 2019 levels, based on data from aviation analytics firm Cirium. The moment marks a major milestone in the recovery from the Covid-19 outbreak, which threw the world’s $1.17t travel market into an unprecedented, existential crisis. Widespread border closures forced airlines to park their fleets, driving the industry to the brink of collapse. The spasms that followed, from travel lockdowns and airline bailouts to fitful reopenings cut short by new Covid strains, left the sector financially weakened and understaffed. When cooped-up travelers finally broke loose last summer, airlines and airports were unprepared, leading to schedule disruptions and chaos in terminals. The return to pre-pandemic flight capacity — the number of seats being offered multiplied by distance flown — speaks to airlines’ resilience and ability to adapt to ever-shifting conditions. Still, it’s become a tougher industry in many respects. Travel to and from China remains depressed, keeping a major market largely on the sidelines of the recovery. Airlines have struggled with persistent aircraft-supply bottlenecks, a headache left over from the pandemic. And Russia’s airspace is now closed for many Western airlines, adding to a host of post-pandemic challenges. Industry profit will be less than 40% of 2019’s level this year, according to the IATA. Business travel still hasn’t fully recovered, and it’s unclear when — or indeed if — it will. With prospects for a corporate rebound uncertain, operators are squeezing what they can from leisure’s fading revenge-travel boom. Jetliner delivery delays and recent engine issues are clouding growth prospects and keeping older planes in service. Labor, jet fuel and debt service are growing more expensive. Story has more.<br/>