Airlines have seen a drop in bookings in the weeks following the start of Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and some expect it to cut into their future profits. According to travel analytics firm ForwardKeys, international flight bookings were 20% below 2019 levels in the three weeks after the attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas against Israel on Oct. 7, and 5 percentage points below the period of three weeks before the attack. The terrorist assault killed some 1,200 people and saw a further roughly 240 taken hostage, triggering the most ferocious Israeli response that the region has ever seen. Israel’s aerial bombing campaign and subsequent ground offensive in Gaza has killed more than 11,000 people, according to health authorities there. In the days following the attack, major airlines suspended or reduced flights to Israel’s Ben-Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv. But air travel demand to and from other countries and regions was noticeably affected, too. In the three-week period before Oct. 7, ticket issuance from the Middle East was just 3% below 2019 levels, according to ForwardKeys data, illustrating the steady recovery of the sector from the Covid-19 pandemic. In the three-week period after Oct. 7, by contrast, ticket issuance from the Middle East was 12% lower than 2019 levels, marking a difference of 9 percentage points. But the biggest drop in terms of international departures was in flight ticket issuance from the Americas, which was actually up 6% from 2019 levels in the three weeks before the attack, and fell to 4% below those levels in the three weeks after, totaling a drop of 10 percentage points. International arrivals to the Middle East meanwhile plunged by 26 percentage points in that time frame, with the biggest drops by country being Israel, followed by Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Lebanon. ForwardKeys draws its data from the IATA’s industrywide ticketing database which includes major international carriers, but not budget airlines like easyJet or Ryanair.<br/>
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Airfares to many popular destinations have recently fallen to their lowest levels in months, and even holiday travel is far cheaper than it was last year, providing some welcome relief to consumers who have been frustrated for months by high prices for all manner of goods and services. The glut of deals suggests that the airline industry’s supercharged pandemic recovery may finally be slowing as the supply of tickets catches up and, on some routes, overtakes demand, which appears relatively robust. Consider the fares that Denise Diorio, a retired teacher in Tampa, Fla., recently scored. She spent less than $40 on flights to and from Chicago and paid just $230 for a round-trip ticket from New York to Paris and back, a trip she plans to take this month. “I’ve been telling all my friends, ‘If you want to go somewhere, get your tickets now,’” she said. The bargains she found may be exceptional, but Diorio is right that deals abound. Early this month, the average price for a domestic flight around Thanksgiving was down about 9% from a year ago. And flights around Christmas were about 18% cheaper, according to Hopper, a booking and price-tracking app. Kayak, the travel search engine, looked at a wider range of dates around the holidays and found that domestic flight prices were down about 18% around Thanksgiving and 23% around Christmas. “In a lot of cases, we’re seeing some of the lowest fares that we’ve seen really since travel started coming back after the drop-off in 2020,” said Kyle Potter, executive editor of Thrifty Traveler, a travel blog and deal-watching service. Domestic ticket prices fell over the summer, Potter said, and deals on international travel, particularly to Europe, have become more common recently. Airlines lower their fares when they are trying to get more people to book tickets as demand is slowing or they are facing stiffer competition. There’s little question that competition has intensified on some routes, but travel experts say it’s not clear whether demand is waning.<br/>
Air fares in Europe are "rising way above inflation," Airports Council International (ACI) Europe said on Tuesday, rebutting statements from airline lobby group IATA. The IATA - which represents some 300 airlines including Lufthansa and SAS - had said that while air fares were rising below inflation, charges from airport operators have grown above it. "While IATA states that air fares in Europe only increased by +16% as of June this year compared to 2019, independent and authoritative data from RDC shows such increase actually standing at +38% over the peak Summer months," the trade association representing European airports said. This rising trend continued into October, ACI said, adding fares were up 47% when booked three months in advance.<br/>
The Netherlands abandoned a plan to reduce capacity at Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport, bowing to pressure from the US, which threatened to retaliate over JetBlue Airways’ expulsion, and the EU. The Dutch government will no longer implement an experimental regulation which would have reduced the number of flights at Schiphol by 8% for the 2024 summer season, Infrastructure Minister Mark Harbers said in a letter sent to parliament on Tuesday. The government received a letter on Nov. 13 from the European Commissioner for transport expressing “serious concerns” about the Dutch government’s failure to follow a required so-called balanced approach procedure. The EU body said it “expressly reserves the right to start infringement proceedings against the Netherlands,” and urged the Dutch to ensure compliance with EU law. JetBlue was ejected from state-controlled Schiphol on Nov. 2 as part of a broad reduction in capacity meant to address concerns over noise levels. The US budget carrier, which started service to Amsterdam in August, was among the newcomers to completely lose access, while others, including KLM NV, saw their takeoff and landing rights cut back. The Dutch government has taken “a good first step” in suspending the plan for capacity cuts next summer, JetBlue said in a statement. “We continue to advocate for a long-term resolution that allows for new entrants and competitors in the market like JetBlue.” The Dutch arm of Air-France KLM said it is satisfied with the suspension of the experimental rule. “It is an important step to prevent retaliation and to continue flying to the US,” the airline said in an emailed statement. Its Paris-based parent said it shares the Dutch government’s concerns and is fully committed to reducing its environmental footprint. KLM, along with other airlines, took the Dutch government to court over the flight capacity restrictions and is currently awaiting the outcome of its appeal challenging the first stage of the cuts. As the results of the appeal are not expected before Q2 2024, the government decided to suspend the first stage of the restrictions, Harbers said in his parliament letter.<br/>
Deputy U.S. Transportation Secretary Polly Trottenberg said Tuesday the Dutch government decision to scrap a plan to cap the maximum number of flights at Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport next summer was “the right decision.” Trottenberg said at an event in Washington that the U.S. government had forcefully made its position clear that it believed the plan was unfair. She disputed that the United States had ever planned to retaliate if the cuts had taken effect, adding: “We’re in a good place now.”<br/>
Iceland has sought to temper concerns that an imminent volcanic eruption would wreak widespread havoc on European aviation as happened in 2010. An eruption is expected within days at Grindavik, a small fishing town in the country’s south-west, with a 15km magma tunnel underneath the town. The level of disruption to travel is dependent on whether magma emerges on land or in water, with the latter more likely to generate an explosive event and shoot ash up into the atmosphere. “The latest activity indicates that magma would most likely come up north of the town and that the likelihood of an ocean eruption has decreased,” Ms Birta Lif Kristinsdottir, team leader of aviation weather services at Iceland’s Met Office, said by phone. Three eruptions have occurred in the area since 2021, all of them fissure eruptions with lava flowing rather than spewing ash. Those contrast with the events of 2010. That year, the volcano Eyjafjallajokull that sits under a glacier erupted in an explosion that released a plume of ash so vast that it grounded air traffic across Europe for weeks. It resulted in the cancellation of 100,000 flights and affected over 10m people. At the time, the International Civil Aviation Organization, ICAO, had rules which prohibited flying though airspace containing ash particles or affected by an ash forecast.<br/>
Passenger numbers at Dubai International Airport this year will eclipse the pre-pandemic passenger figures in 2019, showing the strong rebound in travel after the coronavirus pandemic and lockdowns that grounded aircraft worldwide, a top official said Wednesday. The airport, the world’s busiest for international travel and home of the long-haul carrier Emirates, has had 64.5m passengers pass through its cavernous concourses through the third quarter of this year. That puts it on track to reach 86.8m passengers for the full year, which would exceed its 2019 figure of 86.3m passengers. It had 66m passengers last year. The airport’s busiest year was 2018, when it had 89.1m passengers. “We’re thrilled but not entirely surprised that DXB is all set to surpass the pre-pandemic milestone well ahead of our initial projections by almost a year,” Paul Griffiths, CEO of Dubai Airports, said in a statement. Through Q3, Dubai’s main airport handled 308,000 total takeoffs and landings. India, long a key route for Emirates’ East-West travel strategy, led all countries in destinations, followed by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, the US and Russia. Emirates and other airlines in the United Arab Emirates, an autocratic federation of seven sheikhdoms, have continued to fly to Moscow even during Russia’s war on Ukraine. Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport remains the busiest passenger airport overall.<br/>
Amid the bustle and footfall of thousands of visitors and exhibitors at the 2023 Dubai Airshow, one pavilion is notably empty: that of Israel. During its first-ever Dubai Airshow in November of 2021 following the Abraham Accords, which saw it normalize relations with the United Arab Emirates, Israel was represented by several of its major defense contractors and smaller tech and weapons firms. Its companies’ stands saw no shortage of engagement, with Emiratis and Saudis examining Israeli wares and holding conversation with the firms’ staff, many of whom were in the Gulf for the first time in their lives. Two years later, and one month into Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the scene is unrecognizable. The only visible Israeli representation was a large pavilion for state-owned Israel Aerospace Industries, as well as stands for Elbit Systems Ltd. and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd. More notable than the pared down presence of Israeli companies was the lack of staff and visitors; the spaces were typically deserted or occupied by unaffiliated airshow visitors who said they were just there to use the free chairs and tables. On the show’s first day, the IAI pavilion was surrounded by a red cordon, which was removed by the second day. IAI and Elbit Systems did not reply to an emailed CNBC request for comment. CNBC contacted two representatives of Israeli defense firms that attended the airshow in 2021; they said they did not attend this year’s show because they had been drafted into the country’s military. Meanwhile SIBAT, Israel’s International Defense Cooperation Directorate, canceled its participation; an email from the Israeli Defense Ministry’s media bureau was cited by Defense News prior to the event as saying: “In light of the war that began on Oct. 7, SIBAT has decided not to inaugurate a national pavilion at global defense exhibitions until further notice.”<br/>
Boeing must deliver 70 narrowbody 737s and 14 widebody 787 Dreamliners in November and December to meet its target for 2023, setting the US planemaker up for a sprint over the holiday season. The US planemaker on Tuesday reported delivering 34 jets in October, about half as many as its European rival Airbus, which delivered 71 aircraft. Boeing has said it would deliver at least 375 narrowbody aircraft this year - a reduction from its original goal of between 400 and 450 737s - as well as at least 70 Dreamliners. Delivery numbers are typically largest in the final months of the year as planemakers race to meet annual goals. Boeing will meet its targets if it can match its delivery pace for last year, when it handed 87 737s and 16 Dreamliners to customers in the last two months of 2022. Meanwhile, Airbus needs to deliver 161 aircraft in November and December to meet its annual goal of 720 deliveries. Boeing’s deliveries for October included 18 737 MAXs and one older-model 737 NG aircraft that will be converted into a P-8 maritime surveillance aircraft for the U.S. Navy. Widebody deliveries included three 777 freighters, six 767s and six Dreamliners. Boeing slowed 737 deliveries in August after the discovery of a supplier defect involving misdrilled holes on some aircrafts’ aft pressure bulkhead. Executives had said in an Oct. 25 earnings call that 737 deliveries that month would be in line with September, when the company delivered 15 narrowbody jets - the planemaker’s lightest month so far this year. “With demand strong, our focus remains on delivering airplanes,” Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun told investors in October. Boeing booked 123 gross orders last month, bolstered by a deal with Southwest Airlines for 111 MAXs. It reported six cancellations, which included one MAX for Aerolineas Argentinas and five MAX for customers that Boeing declined to identify.<br/>
Stan Deal, CEO of commercial airplanes at Boeing, says 2023 has been a year of orders for wide-body aircraft with the US manufacturer expecting to announce more deals at this week’s Dubai Airshow. “We’ve seen strong recovery in the narrow-body ordering in 2022 and now in 2023 it seems to be the year of wide-body orders, and I suspect as you see this show unfold, you’re going to see many more wide-body orders for the industry,” Deal, who is also the executive vice president of Boeing, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy. Later Monday, Boeing and Emirates agreed on a major order of 777 jets, adding to the Emirati flag carrier’s existing order backlog of 155 777X aircraft from Boeing. Earlier this year, Saudi flag carrier Saudia and the newly established Riyadh Air each logged orders for 39 of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner jets, and Deal believes demand from the Gulf will continue to grow rapidly. The Dubai Airshow kicked off Monday, and Deal confirmed that active discussions are underway with a number of Gulf carriers. “This is a very unique region in the geography that it represents. Within an eight-hour flight, you are able to get to 80% of the world’s population, and we forecast over the next 20 years about 3,000 aircraft will be needed in this region,” Deal said. “This region tends to skew towards wide-body order demand — that’s been the hallmark characteristic because they are connected worlds — so in orders you’ve seen last year from Saudia and Riyadh Air ordering 787s, that was kind of the start point of what appears to be an order period for us now.”<br/>
The US drive to develop sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) using ethanol could be slowed because of growing opposition to proposed pipelines that would curb greenhouse gas emissions from ethanol plants by capturing carbon dioxide and carrying it away to other states for storage. Ethanol industry players say the developments raise questions about future growth for U.S. producers of the biofuel, including POET, Valero and others, who have been banking on proposed carbon capture and storage pipeline projects across the heartland. These are needed to lower ethanol’s climate impact enough for the fuel to qualify as a feedstock for SAF under the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). President Joe Biden's administration has committed to producing 3b gallons of SAF annually by 2030 and 35b gallons by 2050. The goal is to decarbonize the airline industry while also supporting the ethanol sector and the corn farmers that supply it. The proposed pipeline projects would siphon millions of tons of CO2 off Midwest ethanol processing plants and move the gas to other states for underground injection. Some residents along the pipeline routes worry the pipelines could spring deadly leaks or that their land will be seized to build the projects. Last month, Omaha-based Navigator CO2 Ventures canceled its proposed pipeline. Two others underway from Iowa-based Summit Carbon Solutions and Denver-based Wolf Carbon Solutions face permitting setbacks and public resistance.<br/>