Will air fares remain high in 2024? Here’s what experts say

The airline industry’s dramatic climb from the depths of the pandemic may be ending soon. A review of multiple reports shows stabilization across several key metrics, as rapid growth ends and a new era of normalcy begins. “2024 is expected to mark the end of the dramatic year-on-year increases that have been characteristic of the recovery in 2021-2023,” a December report by the IATA said. Global flight capacity is expected to be restored, with some 40m flights (up from 38.9m in 2019) projected to carry a record 4.7b people (up from 4.5b people in 2019), according to IATA. As leisure travel demand softens and “revenge travel” ends, supply and demand in the commercial airline industry is hitting an equilibrium, which will help stabilize airfares in 2024, according to AMEX GBT Consulting. Global airfares are expected to rise between 3%-7% next year, as airlines grapple with high fuel costs, sustainability changes and fleet upgrades, according to the FCM Consulting’s “Global Trend Report” for Q3 2023. However, several other reports expect flight prices to soften. The travel arrangements company BCD Travel expects global fares to drop next year, but just slightly — less than 1% compared to 2023 — with a more pronounced drop in airfares to and from Asia (3% for business class, nearly 4% for economy), according to its “Travel Market Report 2024 Outlook.” “After recent rises in fares, we should expect a modest price correction in some markets in 2024, although underlying pricing should generally remain strong,” it said. However, AMEX’s “Air Monitor 2024” is expecting only international airfares to drop in 2024 — notably for flights between North America and Asia. The report states regional fares will remain stable or slightly increase.<br/>