Oliver Wyman cuts 10-year aircraft fleet growth forecast amid industry pressure

The global commercial aircraft fleet and the aircraft maintenance market will grow slower than previously expected over the next decade due to tepid economic growth, regulations, constrained production of new aircraft and a pilot shortage. That is according consultancy Oliver Wyman, which predicts in a new report that the number of commercial aircraft worldwide will increase from 28,400 today to 36,400 in 2034, equating annual growth of 2.5% over ten years. That expectation is down notably from the 2.9% estimated fleet expansion rate Oliver Wyman predicted in the 10-year forecast it released last year, and far less optimistic than the 3.9% decade-long annual growth rate the consultancy predicted prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. The latest downward revision reflects “modest global economic growth – the product of high interest rates worldwide – and lower-than-anticipated aircraft production,” Oliver Wyman says. “This year holds its own set of challenges, from continued labour shortages and supply chain fragility to production constraints, slower economic growth” and sustainability-related regulations, particularly those in western Europe. “Despite rising demand for air travel, a return of profitability and more new fuel-efficient aircraft, the fleet will experience slower growth than in the years before the pandemic,” the management consultancy adds. The figures reflect significant troubles that cropped up in recent years within the aerospace production industry, including Pratt & Whitney’s recall, disclosed last year, of more than 1,000 PW1100G geared turbofans, which are one of two power options for Airbus A320neo-family aircraft. CFM International’s competing Leap turbofans have also suffered reliability issues.<br/>