Despite Japan travel boom, JAL and ANA see different earnings paths
Japan Airlines and compatriot ANA Holdings have very different earnings expectations for this fiscal year as intensifying competition and the weak yen leave the outlook for the industry uncertain, especially for outbound travel. JAL predicts its group net profit will grow 5% to 100b yen ($650m) for the year ending March 2025 -- just above the QUICK Consensus analyst estimate -- which would be its first time reaching that level since fiscal 2018. The carrier projects revenue will climb 17% to 1.93t yen. Performance indicators "have remained strong from April on," JAL Executive Vice President Yuji Saito said Thursday when presenting the full-year forecast. Meanwhile, ANA, the parent of All Nippon Airways, expects consolidated net profit to sink 30% to 110b yen this fiscal year. "We'll focus on solidifying our footing for the time being," ANA Holdings President Koji Shibata said. "We'll attain full-fledged growth from fiscal 2026." The contrast stems from how Japan's two top airlines view the post-pandemic path ahead for the aviation industry. Rising demand for air travel provides reason for optimism, but a chronically weak yen and stiff competition for passengers could be a drag on earnings. Competition is already intensifying. Global air passenger traffic will reach 4.7b people this year, the IATA, a "historic high" surpassing the 4.5b travelers in the pre-pandemic year of 2019. Airlines are taking notice. Indian low-cost carrier IndiGo said last year it was ordering 500 passenger jets from Airbus, and flag carrier Air India is ordering a combined 470 aircraft from Airbus and Boeing. Turkish Airlines looks to field a fleet of 800 planes by 2033, roughly double the scale in 2023. "The aircraft market is heating up," Shibata has said. "If we don't place orders, we won't be able to secure our position." ANA plans to select as early as this fiscal year a small aircraft to order in place of the canceled Mitsubishi SpaceJet, as well as a supplier for a new wide-body aircraft model for international routes.<br/>
https://portal.staralliance.com/cms/news/hot-topics/2024-05-06/star/despite-japan-travel-boom-jal-and-ana-see-different-earnings-paths
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Despite Japan travel boom, JAL and ANA see different earnings paths
Japan Airlines and compatriot ANA Holdings have very different earnings expectations for this fiscal year as intensifying competition and the weak yen leave the outlook for the industry uncertain, especially for outbound travel. JAL predicts its group net profit will grow 5% to 100b yen ($650m) for the year ending March 2025 -- just above the QUICK Consensus analyst estimate -- which would be its first time reaching that level since fiscal 2018. The carrier projects revenue will climb 17% to 1.93t yen. Performance indicators "have remained strong from April on," JAL Executive Vice President Yuji Saito said Thursday when presenting the full-year forecast. Meanwhile, ANA, the parent of All Nippon Airways, expects consolidated net profit to sink 30% to 110b yen this fiscal year. "We'll focus on solidifying our footing for the time being," ANA Holdings President Koji Shibata said. "We'll attain full-fledged growth from fiscal 2026." The contrast stems from how Japan's two top airlines view the post-pandemic path ahead for the aviation industry. Rising demand for air travel provides reason for optimism, but a chronically weak yen and stiff competition for passengers could be a drag on earnings. Competition is already intensifying. Global air passenger traffic will reach 4.7b people this year, the IATA, a "historic high" surpassing the 4.5b travelers in the pre-pandemic year of 2019. Airlines are taking notice. Indian low-cost carrier IndiGo said last year it was ordering 500 passenger jets from Airbus, and flag carrier Air India is ordering a combined 470 aircraft from Airbus and Boeing. Turkish Airlines looks to field a fleet of 800 planes by 2033, roughly double the scale in 2023. "The aircraft market is heating up," Shibata has said. "If we don't place orders, we won't be able to secure our position." ANA plans to select as early as this fiscal year a small aircraft to order in place of the canceled Mitsubishi SpaceJet, as well as a supplier for a new wide-body aircraft model for international routes.<br/>
