Australia still behind pre-COVID passenger levels, analysis shows

Australia’s aviation sector is still lagging pre-COVID levels overall despite continued growth. According to data released this month by analyst OAG, half of the biggest 20 aviation markets – including Australia – are yet to reach 2019 levels of seat capacity, with Australia still 2.7% below 2019 even as it grew by 4% compared to 2023. Australia’s region, Southwest Pacific, is one of four that has “effectively stagnated” and remains below 2019, down 4.5%; it is, however, the region that has seen the best recovery of the four, ahead of Eastern Europe (down 8.6%), South East Asia (down 13.1%), and Southern Africa (down 17%). Global airline capacity overall grew 6.4% year-on-year in 2024, though is still only 2.4% above 2019 levels. “In the Southwest Pacific, modest capacity cuts versus 2019 from a range of airlines including Qantas, Air New Zealand and Virgin Australia – some of which are supply and maintenance related – continue to draw back capacity growth,” wrote OAG’s chief analyst, John Grant. “In South East Asia the much-discussed Chinese international market recovery lingers, while in Eastern Europe the ongoing situation in Ukraine is an unfortunate example of how vulnerable the sector is to other events, although capacity growth this year has been more encouraging. Southern Africa with a 17% reduction in capacity versus 2019 has seen the loss of two of its largest airlines but ironically from an integrity of service and financial viability standpoint, is in a better position than pre-pandemic.”<br/>