UK forecasts small role for green airline fuel by 2040 despite Reeves’ claims

Fossil fuels will account for more than three-quarters of fuel used by airlines beyond 2040 — according to the British government’s own projections — undermining Rachel Reeves’ claims that new technologies will turn aviation green. The UK chancellor said on Thursday that “sustainable aviation fuels” are a “game-changer” in the debate over airport expansion, as she forecast that flights could take off from a new runway at Heathrow by 2035. Reeves has angered environmentalists — but delighted some business groups — by encouraging Heathrow’s management to put forward plans for the third runway by this summer, with the hope of achieving planning permission before the next election in 2029. “We’ve asked Heathrow to come forward with plans for that third runway by the summer, and we’ve said that it needs to meet strict rules about environmental and carbon emissions . . . I do believe they can. And Heathrow believes that they can as well,” Reeves told the BBC. “I believe [sustainable aviation fuels] are a game-changer in the way that we fly and the carbon emissions,” she said. But the government is only expecting 22% of UK jet fuel to be supplied by SAF by 2040, according to a document dated December 2024. SAF is made from a diverse range of sources, including crops, used cooking oil, household waste or hydrogen and can emit about 70% less carbon dioxide over its life cycle than traditional aviation fuel. It is also much more expensive than traditional jet fuel and is currently only available in small quantities.<br/>