Airports Council International (ACI) World has unveiled its anticipated Airport Traffic Forecasts 2024–2053, projecting significant long-term growth in global passenger traffic. Over the next three decades, global passenger numbers are expected to reach 17.7b by 2043 and 22.3b by 2053, the later nearly 2.4 times the projected volume for 2024. The new forecasts, which cover 99.8% of global markets across 161 countries, highlight a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% from 2024 to 2043, with a slightly slower CAGR of 3% from 2024 to 2053. The projections indicate a steady upward trajectory in global aviation, driven by factors such as rising middle-class travel demand in emerging markets, strengthened international travel, and continued investments in airport infrastructure. However, short-term challenges include geopolitical tensions, economic instability, trade shifts like reintroduced tariffs, and supply chain bottlenecks, which may slow recovery in some regions.<br/>
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Britain's Heathrow Airport forecast slower passenger growth in 2025, highlighting the need for a new runway weeks after the government threw its weight behind expansion at the hub as it seeks to boost trade and economic growth. CE Thomas Woldbye said Heathrow also needed government backing in terms of faster planning approvals, airspace modernisation and funding structures. Last year 83.9m people travelled through Heathrow, Europe's busiest airport, beating the pre-COVID record set in 2019 by 3m. It forecast passenger numbers would rise more slowly this year to 84.2m. The airport's two runways are full and it can only add passengers when airlines fly larger planes. European competitors Paris and Amsterdam have four and six runways, respectively. British governments have dithered for decades over Heathrow expansion, caught between the desire for growth and environmental concerns, but finance minister Rachel Reeves said in January the case for the runway was stronger than ever. The government will on Thursday decide whether to allow the expansion of Gatwick, Britain's second-biggest airport. "There's a need for both," Woldbye said in an interview on Wednesday. Questions remain over how to fund the Heathrow expansion, likely to be many billions more than the GBP14b estimated in 2014. Woldbye said Heathrow would make clear its preferences when it makes a submission to the government this summer. "How that can be structured and split over time is what we're looking at," he said, adding that he would hold talks with airlines. Heathrow's biggest airline British Airways and Virgin Atlantic have long complained that the airport is the most expensive in the world.<br/>
A decision is expected later on whether Gatwick airport can expand to two simultaneously functioning runways. The airport wants to move its northern runway, which is currently only used for taxiing or as a back up, and make it operational by the turn of the decade. Gatwick is Europe's busiest single runway airport, with more than 40m passengers using it last year. If permission is granted, work would start almost immediately, but MPs, local authorities and residents are strongly opposed. The Transport Secretary, Heidi Alexander, will announce her decision in a written ministerial statement to Parliament later. On Tuesday she told industry leaders she had "no intention of clipping anyone's wings," and said aviation was good for growth. "I am not some sort of flight-shaming eco warrior. I love flying – I always have," she said during a speech at the annual dinner of trade body Airlines UK in London. Gatwick managers say that with 55 take-offs and landings in a busy hour, the airport is "full". Being able to use both runways could increase the number of departures by 50,000 a year by the end of the 2030s, according to Gatwick. It says some 30,000 of those flights are planned to depart from the north runway which will only be used for departures and not landings.<br/>
Air travel from the UK may have to be curbed if jet engines fail to cut their carbon footprint, Britain was warned on Wednesday. The UK's top climate change advisers said aviation was on track to become Britain's most polluting sector by 2040. They said ministers would have to consider higher taxes, or limiting the growth of airports such as London Heathrow, if net zero is slipping out of reach. Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a tug-of-war between his climate advisers and Heathrow bosses who pledged on Wednesday to submit proposals for a third runway within months. The airport described itself as “Britain's gateway to growth” as it reported an increase in profits to GBP917m ($1.16b). The Climate Change Committee's report said any increase in flying “is conditional” on green technology – such as sustainable aviation fuel – developing as hoped. Starmer's government has backed Heathrow's third runway and is considering expansion plans for London Luton and London Gatwick. If technology “is not on track to deliver what is required … the government and the aviation industry will need to be ready to implement more demand management policy”, the committee said. It said a “balanced pathway” to net zero would see passenger flights rise by a relatively modest 16 per cent by 2040, when they might otherwise grow 53%. “For a long time, decarbonisation in this country has really meant work in the power sector, but now we need to see action on transport, buildings, industry, and farming,” said the committee's chairman, climate scientist Piers Forster. “This will create opportunities in the economy, tackle climate change, and bring down household bills.”<br/>
The Romanian parliament adopted a bill on Wednesday allowing the army to shoot down drones illegally breaching Romanian airspace, based on threat levels and risks to human life and property. European Union and NATO state Romania, which shares a 650-km border with Ukraine, has had Russian drone fragments repeatedly fall onto its territory as Moscow has attacked Kyiv's port infrastructure. Both chambers of parliament adopted the bill despite strong opposition from ultranationalist hard-right politicians who control more than a third of seats in the legislature. The bill sets out specific conditions for Romania to control the use of its airspace both for piloted and unmanned aircraft. The measures for piloted vehicles are progressive, from establishing the aircraft's position and identity, to attempting contact, interception and warning shots. They can only be destroyed if they conduct an attack or respond aggressively to interception. Unmanned aerial vehicles, most often drones, can be destroyed, neutralised or taken control of, depending on threat levels. Destruction is a last resort. Under the proposed law, allied systems present in Romania could also participate in any action, in agreement with collective defence treaties with the NATO and EU member.<br/>
Forty-six people were killed when a Sudanese army plane crashed in a residential area near a military airport in the capital's twin city Omdurman, the Khartoum state media office said, and military sources said a senior commander was among the dead. The crash took place late on Tuesday near the Wadi Sayidna military airport in northern Omdurman. The Sudanese army had said several military personnel and civilians were killed in the incident, but did not provide further details. Military sources said that the plane crash was most likely due to technical reasons. The media office said 10 people were also injured. Among those killed was Major General Bahr Ahmed, a senior commander in Khartoum who previously served as the commander of the army across the entire capital, military sources said.<br/>
Mauritius has shut down its international airport after the government's weather department issued a category 3 cyclone warning for the Indian Ocean islands, the airport's operator said on Wednesday. The airport will close from 1910 local time (1510 GMT), Airports of Mauritius Ltd said in a statement. Earlier on Wednesday, the Mauritius Meteorological Services announced the class 3 cyclone warning, saying tropical storm Garance, about 440 kilometres northwest of Mauritius, was intensifying. It said winds with speeds as high as 70 km per hour were expected early on Thursday and asked the public to stay away from the sea.<br/>
China has agreed to consider concerns that its military did not give enough notice before staging live-fire exercises in the waters between New Zealand and Australia last week, the foreign minister of New Zealand said Wednesday. The drills prompted passenger flights between the two countries to divert in midflight after Chinese naval vessels warned pilots they were flying above a live-fire exercise. “I think it would be true to say that he took our concerns on board,” Foreign Minister Winston Peters said after meeting and having dinner with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in the Chinese capital. Peters said he put the issue in the context of the close ties that the two countries have developed since 2008. China is the biggest export destination for New Zealand and Australia. “We’re in the second decade of this arrangement, and this is a failure in it at this time, and we’d like to have it corrected in the future,” he said. He added, “That is something which we believe is under consideration.”<br/>
The head of the world's largest aircraft leasing company, AerCap, said on Wednesday that Russia may look to buy used aircraft or engines if and when its markets reopen but that he saw no rush by Western lessors to resume renting jets. Talks aimed at achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine have raised the prospect of a gradual reopening of Russia to Western firms, though the leasing industry remains scarred by the confiscation of some 400 jets following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Speaking to Reuters after posting record core earnings per share, CEO Aengus Kelly stressed that any business with Russia would have to be approved by the United States and European Union, which continue to impose war-related economic sanctions. "Now, let's say that occurs, then you'll need insurance. I just don't see insurance occurring, so that means leasing would be a very long putt," Kelly said. "However, sales are different. Could sales be done with individual asset approval? Possibly. It would be a long putt, but there'll be a big surge in demand to buy used assets." Kelly said Western repair companies would be reluctant to work on airplanes that have been operating in Russia without current paperwork or approved parts, which would throw a wrench into the trading of parts even if sanctions are lifted. "I think the real demand will come from discrete assets, like a whole engine or an aircraft. I think it will be difficult to say that an aircraft that has been in Russia has any intrinsic value," Kelly added.<br/>