Airlines cut forecasts, raising an early alarm about consumer spending

Airlines flashed an early-warning signal on Tuesday, suggesting that consumers and businesses were starting to get nervous amid wider economic and political uncertainty. Several carriers cut their financial forecasts for the first few months of the year, saying that revenue would be weaker than expected. They pointed to a number of reasons: bad weather, high-profile plane crashes, and less spending by consumers, businesses and the federal government. “We just went through a little bit of a parade of horribles,” Ed Bastian, the chief executive of Delta Air Lines, said at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference on Tuesday morning. Delta, Southwest Airlines and American Airlines all downgraded their revenue forecasts for the first quarter compared with earlier projections. Those revised projections suggest that uncertainty and flagging economic confidence have started to take a toll on travel, which can be an early indicator for other industries. But the news was not all bad. Airlines still expect revenue in the first quarter to be about the same as, if not higher than, the same period last year. And most are optimistic about the rest of 2025. The softening travel spending also appeared to be limited, for now, to flights within the United States and to lower-priced fares, according to Delta and United Airlines. “Good news is that international, long haul, Hawaii, premium, all remain really strong,” Scott Kirby, United’s CE, said at the investor conference. United did not revise its quarterly forecast, but Kirby said that he expected to finish the quarter at the low end of its financial projections. Delta similarly said that premium and international travel remained strong, which was welcome news to analysts, who were surprised by the size of the cut to its forecasts. But that may not be enough to ease all investors’ concerns, according to Andrew Didora, an analyst at the Bank of America.<br/>