Waning travel from Canada. Signs of weaker demand across the Atlantic. Mass government layoffs. Tariffs. Consumers pulling back on travel bookings. The worst stock market swoon since 2020. All are signs of concerns for the airline industry. U.S. airlines will likely cut their 2025 outlooks when they report earnings starting this week, analysts say, pointing to cracks in demand for travel, which customers had prioritized even through years of inflation. “Clearly, things are softer than they were in January,” Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth told CNBC. Delta Air Lines last month cut its first-quarter forecast, citing weaker-than-expected corporate and leisure bookings. American Airlines and Southwest Airlines also trimmed their outlooks for the first half of the year. Since then, airline stocks have tumbled further, as concerns have grown about weaker demand amid President Donald Trump’s policies, most recently, new globe-spanning tariffs of no less than 10%. “The level of sell-off is worse than the reality right now, but it doesn’t necessarily mean it won’t be the reality six months from now,” Syth said. Wall Street analysts have slashed their price targets and downgraded their ratings on U.S. airlines, even Delta, the most profitable of the U.S. carriers. Like its main rival United Airlines, Delta has said high-income consumers who are willing to shell out more for roomier seats have been a boon to its bottom line in recent years. However, they’re not expecting anything like the pandemic in 2020, when countries closed their borders and air travel demand essentially dried up overnight. It was still the industry’s worst-ever crisis. Demand hasn’t disappeared this time, but instead is showing signs of strain that other industries have also seen. Delta will be the first of the U.S. airlines to report quarterly results before the market opens on Wednesday.<br/>
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Minister for Transport Darragh O’Brien said he has had “positive talks” with North American airlines lobbying to end Dublin Airport’s 32 million a year passenger limit. It comes as he disclosed he has sought the advice of Attorney General (AG), Rossa Fanning, on “legislative options” for lifting the limit. Planners imposed the cap on the State’s biggest airport in 2007 as a condition of allowing it to build a second terminal. O’Brien said he had a “good meeting” with Airlines for America (A4A), which represents US and Canadian carriers, when the industry group met him last week to discuss the Government’s pledge to lift the cap. “What I would say is that the meeting was very positive,” he said. The Minister acknowledged that A4A could formally complain to the US department of transportation, potentially sparking retaliatory restrictions on Irish or even EU airlines’ access to airports there. He confirmed that US airlines raised this but “in a very positive, collegiate way”. O’Brien added that the Government preferred to deal with US-European trade issues, including tariffs announced last week by president Donald Trump, through negotiation alongside the EU. A4A argues that the passenger cap potentially breaches EU-North American air travel agreements which allow US, Canadian and EU airlines free access to each other’s skies and airports. The industry group last year joined a High Court challenge to the cap brought by Ryanair and Aer Lingus that resulted in key questions being referred to the Court of Justice EU. O’Brien said on Monday that he was awaiting a response from the AG - the State’s most senior legal adviser - on legislative options was waiting for his response.<br/>
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) is to hold its first safety summit this year, amid growing aviation safety challenges. The Asia Pacific Aviation Safety Seminar will take place on 10 and 11 September in Manila. AAPA member Philippine Airlines will be the host carrier. This year’s event “centres on operational resilience, human factors, safety leadership, and risks arising from technology as well as evolving airspace threats, including spoofing, fatigue management and data integration”, states the AAPA. The association’s director general Subhas Menon adds: “As aviation safety challenges grow in complexity, our collective commitment to collaboration, data sharing and cross-disciplinary learning becomes even more critical.”<br/>
Planemakers, airlines and suppliers are combing through billions of dollars worth of contracts to check their exposure to tariffs after a major U.S. supplier sparked debate over who should pay for an emerging trade war, industry sources said on Monday. Reuters reported on Friday that U.S. supplier Howmet Aerospace had declared a "force majeure event," effectively claiming the right to halt shipments if they were affected by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. Howmet makes engine parts, fuselage fasteners and other components. Analysts said Howmet's rare and unexpected declaration that it can legally avoid contract obligations due to unavoidable circumstances will amplify debate about who should bear the cost for chronic disruption to parts supplies, including new tariffs. So far, the answer has been passengers, as higher costs ripple along an $800b-plus supply chain from parts to aircraft and airlines, and ultimately to higher fares. Trump's 20% tariffs on European Union products including Airbus (AIR.PA), opens new tab planes, and likely EU retaliation against U.S.-based Boeing (BA.N), opens new tab, may put that to the test. "Howmet has made a chess move, declaring force majeure and threatening to halt shipments. We all know it takes just one nut or bolt to stop the ... supply chain,” Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu wrote. "This ultimately is an effort to pass on rising input costs in areas not already protected … In our view, the potential to stop shipments creates leverage for Howmet, but also is pitted against its customers' willingness to cave."<br/>