President Donald Trump's trade war has created the biggest uncertainty for U.S. airlines since the COVID pandemic. With little clarity on how consumers will behave in the face of a potentially worsening economy, carriers are struggling to accurately forecast their business. While Delta Air Lines and Frontier have withdrawn their full-year outlook, United has offered two different earnings forecasts. "It kind of really shows a lack of conviction," said Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, which holds shares of United. Economists polled by Reuters expect the aggressive U.S. tariff policy to trigger a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy this year and next, with the probability of a U.S. recession over the coming year surging to 45%, the highest since December 2023, from 25% last month. Since travel spending closely tracks broader economic activity, any recession is widely expected to cut airline revenue. Carriers have traditionally relied on capacity cuts and cost management to protect their earnings in a recessionary environment. They have already started pulling those levers, but a fluid economic situation means they can ill-afford to slam the brakes hard.<br/>
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The agency that provides air traffic control for Canada's airports says traffic flow at Vancouver International Airport has resumed normal operations in time for Easter weekend travel. The update from Nav Canada comes after the agency issued posts to social media on Tuesday and Wednesday warning of flight delays. The agency said in a statement on Wednesday that a temporary traffic management initiative was implemented at Vancouver's airport in order to maintain a safe flow of traffic due to "personnel resource constraints." It says operations at the airport have "now returned to normal levels," but it is advising passengers to continue checking the status of their flights. Vancouver International Airport confirmed that Nav Canada had informed both the airlines and the airport that it would be able to "provide standard operations" on Thursday.<br/>
A Boeing jet that arrived at a completion plant near Shanghai last month was returning to the U.S., flight tracking data showed on Friday, in a sign that at least one Chinese airline could be halting deliveries due to U.S. tariffs.<br/>The U.S. planemaker was reported earlier this week to face a Chinese ban on its imports, part of an escalating confrontation over U.S. President Donald Trump's "reciprocal" global tariffs, though industry sources said the status of rules remained unclear. In a sign that Boeing was preparing for normal business just weeks before Trump announced tariffs on April 2, tracking data showed at least four new 737 MAX planes sitting at a completion and delivery centre in Zhoushan, where Boeing installs interiors and paints liveries before handing aircraft to customers in China. Three arrived from Boeing in Seattle in March and one arrived last week, according to Flightradar24. On Friday morning one of those jets departed Zhoushan for Guam - one of the stops such flights make as they cross the Pacific Ocean before reaching Seattle - indicating it was making the return journey, tracking data shows.<br/>Photos posted to planespotting websites in February showed it was decorated with a livery for Xiamen Airlines, which is majority owned by China Southern. One source said the plane was expected to be delivered to Xiamen. In 2024 it was spotted in the U.S. with a Shandong Airlines livery and in 2018 with the Air China logo, other photos showed. None of those airlines immediately responded to requests for comment. Aviation publication The Air Current on Thursday reported that the first of three of the four recently arrived planes had been tagged to be recalled to the United States without a handover. Boeing declined to comment. Boeing deliveries to China have previously been disrupted at times of tension between Washington and Beijing. In January 2024 MAX deliveries resumed after an almost five-year import freeze.<br/>