general

For an industry that prides itself on bringing people together, it was a particular humiliation for airlines to have to resort to video conferencing for their annual industry meeting this week - and not one they are ready to repeat. Brought to their knees by the COVID-19 pandemic and struggling to convince governments to replace quarantines with testing, airlines turned to veteran IAG boss Willie Walsh to lead industry association IATA from next April. “My style will be different from what has gone before me,” said Walsh, as he thanked outgoing IATA chief Alexandre de Juniac. “I too am a businessman and I too understand how governments operate, but I’m even more unhappy and more critical of how they get things done (and) how they’ve failed to get things done.” Without a doubt, this will be Walsh’s biggest challenge yet. In three days of media briefings around the meeting, IATA further downgraded its financial outlook for the sector as a second wave of coronavirus cases in Europe and the United States points to more heavy losses and bankruptcies. That may test Walsh’s aversion to bailouts and subsidies. Little was said about further aid at the meeting, which ended on Wednesday, though de Juniac called days earlier for $80b in support on top of the $160b received.<br/>

IATA’s safety chief identifies maintenance as the biggest operational challenge airlines face on moving to a full restart of services after the pandemic, in part because uncertainty on when this might happen makes it harder to plan for. The association’s senior VP safety and flight operations Gilberto Lopez Meyer highlighted the issue when asked about the challenges airlines will face during the recovery. ”The maintenance challenge is going to be massive. Like never in history,” he says, pointing to the number of aircraft that have been – and remain – out of service. ”At the peak of the crisis [in May] we had more than 18,000 aircraft parked. There were problems to find space even to park these aircraft,” he says. ”So the maintenance part, among many others, is one of the areas we have to very carefully plan, with the complexity that nobody knows when it [return to full service] is going to happen. Because the more time it takes, the more complex are the maintenance activities we need to perform to the aircraft to be able to get them ready to return to service.” Ensuring aircraft are ready to return to service is not the only operational issue airlines face with so much capacity still grounded because of the pandemic. One of the other major challenges is ensuring the currency of crew, so they are able to fly when capacity is increased. ”You can imagine with the reduction of international flights at this moment, thousands and thousands of pilots have lost recency, because they have not flown enough,” he says.<br/>

Several federal agencies have recommended that the White House lift an entry ban on non-US citizens arriving from Europe put in place to slow the spread of Covid-19. The organizations, which participate in the White House Coronavirus Task Force, have signed off on lifting the restrictions, said two people who were briefed on the discussions. The limits have helped lead to a more than 90% reduction in the lucrative trans-Atlantic flight market. The restrictions were imposed by the Homeland Security Department after a presidential proclamation on March 11. It applied to 28 European nations and was expanded to Brazil on May 25. It’s unclear whether White House officials, including President Donald Trump, will go along with lifting the ban or what the timing of a decision will be, said the people, who asked not to be identified because they weren’t authorized to discuss the issue. The nation is currently experiencing record high infection rates and growing deaths. The immediate impact of such an action on airlines is also not known. Most European nations have imposed quarantines on arriving passengers, which has severely limited those who want to travel to and from the region. “The Department stands ready to support the safe resumption of international flights to and from the US,” the DOT said in an emailed statement. “Conversations are ongoing between the federal government, international partners, and industry stakeholders on these matters.”<br/>

Thanksgiving week air travel is expected to remain strong enough to set a pandemic-era record despite urging from federal health officials to spend the holiday at home. The US CDC recommended Americans to not travel for Thanksgiving last week -- but that didn't stop more than 1 million travelers from passing through US airport security on Sunday and more than 900,000 on Tuesday, according to the TSA. Since the CDC issued that warning, nearly 5 million people have boarded airplanes. The agency receives passenger information from the airlines as part of its screening responsibilities, and the data does not show widespread cancellations in recent days, TSA spokesman Andy Post said. From September to October, the number of scheduled available seats departing US airports was down nearly 50% compared to the same timeframe last year. Due to increased demand, that number is only down 39% for the Thanksgiving holiday period, according to Airlines for America, a trade association that represents major North American airlines. Still, officials still expect Sunday -- when everyone heads home from their holiday travels -- to be the busiest day of travel since the pandemic began. While the number of travelers passing through airport security on Sunday is concerning, many Americans are heeding the warnings from officials and health experts. Sixty-one percent of Americans said they changed their Thanksgiving plans, according to a poll released on Tuesday by Axios-Ipsos. More surprising is that nearly one in 10 Americans that were polled say they do not plan to celebrate the holiday at all.<br/>

Europe’s airlines will struggle more than competitors elsewhere to end losses next year as they’re held back by higher expenses and their dependence on overseas routes, according to the IATA. The region’s carriers should achieve seat-occupancy levels averaging 63.8% for the whole of 2020, increasing to 65.6% in 2021. That’s still below the projected break-even load factor of 71.9%, IATA said in a presentation Wednesday. European airlines are expected to post a combined loss of $11.9b in 2021, the sharpest deficit among six regions and corresponding to almost one-third of the global tally. The loss in 2020, while wider, will rank well behind those in North America and the Asia-Pacific, equaling 23% of the total, IATA says. Europe’s recovery will be tougher because of the high break-even barrier resulting from the cost of doing business, said Rafael Schvartzman, IATA’s VP for the region, citing recent increases in air-navigation fees in nine nations. A reliance on international revenue has also left Europe’s carriers more vulnerable when countries impose anti-pandemic lockdowns, meaning stronger sales won’t arrive until later in 2021. The probable early distribution of Covid-19 vaccines in Europe means the aviation restart could get a boost, though only if the region adopts a harmonized approach that’s so far been lacking, Schvartzman said. IATA Chief Economist Brian Pearce said separately that global air-cargo volumes will probably increase 13% next year as companies turn to planes as the quickest way of restocking after the crisis, with demand also buoyed by an impending airlift of coronavirus vaccines.<br/>

Brazilian aviation regulator ANAC on Wednesday lifted the grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX, following US clearance of the jets for flight, after a redesign prompted by two fatal crashes that killed 346 people. On Tuesday, the EASA set out conditions for putting the grounded jets back into service, including new training and updating MCAS software implicated in the crashes. Brazil’s top regulator said Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes, the only airline to operate the model in Brazil, is implementing the required measures to resume flights. Gol said last week it could resume flying Boeing 737 MAX jets by year-end. Some regulators have been waiting for EASA’s decision before lifting their own measures as the 20-month Boeing safety crisis tested confidence in US aviation leadership. ANAC superintendent of airworthiness José Roberto Honorato said the Brazilian regulator would apply the US FAA conditions for bringing the MAX back to service and downplayed differences between regulators. EASA differed from the FAA in saying pilots could stop a “stick shaker” alarm from vibrating if it went off accidentally, halting a distraction thought to have added to the problems of the two crews in handling the fatal flights. It also issued one temporary restriction on autopilot use, unlike the US.<br/>

The latest air connectivity ranking from IATA shows how China’s large domestic airline market has boosted its fortunes versus other regions. Using a composite measure that considers the number of seats flown from a country’s major airports and the economic importance of destinations, IATA’s data ranks Chinese cities in the top four positions globally, based on September figures. “The dramatic shift in the connectivity rankings demonstrates the scale at which the world’s connectivity has been re-ordered over the last months,” says Sebastian Mikosz, IATA’s senior VP for member external relations. “There are no winners, just some players that suffered fewer injuries… The message we must take from this study is the urgent need to re-build the global air transport network.” Compared with September 2019’s ranking, London has fallen from top spot, replaced by Shanghai, while New York, Tokyo, Bangkok, Hong Kong and Seoul have dropped out of the top 10. The shift in the rankings is unsurprising, given the well-documented recovery of China’s huge domestic market – which accounted for around 14% of all global airline traffic in 2019 – amid depressed volumes elsewhere.<br/>

Many people are flying less in an effort to be eco-friendly, but an EU report has suggested a different way to help tackle climate change: fly for longer. Up to two-thirds of the climate impact from aviation is coming from non-carbon dioxide sources, the EASA said, much of which is caused by contrails created when planes fly through humid, cold parts of the atmosphere. EASA suggested that this impact could be reduced if planes take alternative routes, either by flying higher or lower in the sky or by flying a less direct path. The calculations would be based on meteorological models, and limits could be set on the greatest acceptable increase in either flight time or distance flown. Currently air traffic control is mainly tasked with preserving safety by keeping planes away from each other, so considering climate concerns would mark a significant change in approach, the report said. The option was one of six suggested to the EC, which was asked by the EU to investigate non-CO2 emissions from aircraft. Adding cleaner fuels to aeroplane fuel mixes and charging airlines for nitrogen dioxide emissions were also raised as potential solutions. While it has long been known that aeroplane contrails contribute to climate change, the extent of this impact is unclear. More research is needed on how to accurately predict the areas where large contrails are most likely to be formed, the report added. Story has more.<br/>

Boris Johnson’s “jet zero” goal of a commercial transatlantic flight producing no carbon emissions by 2025 is a “gimmick”, according to experts, who say technology alone cannot solve the impact of global aviation on the climate crisis. Such a flight would not be impossible, the experts said, but could only be a one-off and would encourage the view that other measures such as taxing jet fuel and frequent fliers were not needed to tackle aviation’s carbon problem. The jet zero technology idea was part of Johnson’s 10-point “green industrial revolution” plan launched last week. But experts called jet zero “severely underfunded”, and pointed out that the government would not begin consulting on a strategy to decarbonise aviation until next year. The UK has also not demanded green action from airlines in return for coronavirus bailouts, unlike France. The pandemic has halved passenger numbers but the industry expects them to recover by 2024. However, the experts also praised the UK for taking some action, given that only a few countries are even beginning to tackle an issue seen as one of the most difficult climate challenges. The aviation industry says more efficient planes and buying millions of tonnes of carbon offsets can compensate for big future increases in passenger numbers. Independent experts say new taxes to deter flying are vital, and agree with the aviation industry that green jet fuels are needed too. These exist and could power long-haul flights, but are currently expensive. Long-haul electric or hydrogen planes are unlikely before the middle of the century, if ever, by which time emissions should already have been cut to zero. Story has more.<br/>

African airlines are proving particularly vulnerable to the devastating impact of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the latest analysis from IATA. The industry’s body’s forecast for airline traffic, capacity and finances – released on 24 November – shows Africa lagging already punishing global figures. “Airlines in Africa have burnt all their cash reserves,” states IATA’s regional VP for Africa and the Middle East, Muhammad Ali Albakri, during a briefing today. “We need to continue to provide financial support and financial aid, and proper policy and regulations, and we also need to quickly open up borders and remove hurdles to allow revenue streams to come to airlines.” In explaining the region’s worse outlook, Albakri says that African airlines have received “little government support” during the crisis, while the “relative lack of cold chain facilities” may delay the distribution of vaccines, meaning Africa is expected to experience a delayed recovery in financial performance. Those factors add to the pre-pandemic challenges in the African market, which has proven a stubborn environment for airlines seeking to make inroads and money, amid fragmented connectivity and a complex regulatory system. The long-term decline of South African Airways and the failure-strewn landscape of relaunched flag carriers are two examples of this difficult market in action. So, while passenger traffic is forecast to be down 66.3% globally in 2020, Africa’s decline is predicted to be 72%. Crucially, Africa’s recovery next year is also expected to be much slower, with the region forecast to see demand 62% down on 2019 figures, versus a global prediction of 50%.<br/>

Airlines are hopeful that Brexit-related disruption can be avoided, as Britain and the European Union continue negotiations on their future relationship after the Dec. 31 end of the transition period, the sector's main global body said. "We see positive trends in terms of an agreement," said Rafael Schvartzman, vice-president for Europe at the IATA. "In principle we're not seeing a situation (where) there will be lost connectivity."<br/>

IATA is urging governments to promote sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as a critical tool to enabling the industry to halve its CO2 emissions against 2005 levels by 2050. Calling SAF a “game changer”, IATA’s Sebastian Mikosz, senior VP for member and external relations, tells the third day of the association’s global media event that SAF products are already available and do not require any additional modifications to aircraft or infrastructure. Around 40 airlines already have experience of using SAF, with flights having taken place using only SAF. However, “this game changer needs policy support because the cost of SAF is really not competitive now”, he notes. SAF currently cost around two-to-four times as much as conventional aviation fuel. IATA believes the coronavirus crisis is an opportunity for governments to support SAF production, with additional investment required in the refinery sector. Governments could promote SAF through direct investment from stimulus packages, loan guarantees and incentives for the private sector, as well as regulations that channel feedstock towards aviation, as opposed to other lower-carbon transport industries. “Our ambition is to use the crisis to promote SAF and regulatory support of lowering the cost of SAF”, says Mikosz. The association envisages SAF’s usage rising from around 0.01% of global aviation fuel currently to 2% in the middle of the decade. By 2050, it hopes SAF could represent 50-85% of aviation fuel consumption, via a “gradual ramp-up” in its adoption.<br/>

Cargo capacity in the bellies of passenger aircraft will be necessary for the efficient distribution of Covid-19 vaccines, according to IATA. Glynn Hughes, IATA’s outgoing head of cargo, says: “To facilitate the effective distribution of a vaccine, we need the passenger network to be up and moving.”Around 50% of air cargo typically travels on passenger aircraft, with normal freight operations currently disrupted by Covid-19’s impact on airline networks. In order to get the vaccine to locations where air cargo operations are infrequent, “it is critical to get passenger operations resumed”.. Cargo and passenger airlines have several preparations to make in order to effectively transport the vaccine. Some vaccines require “ultra-cool” environments and will rely on aircraft and airport facilities that can provide this. The need for ultra-cooling also raises the prospect of aircraft having to carry substances such as dry ice. Hughes notes the “ultra-cool” Pfizer vaccine, one of the key products planned to be rolled out globally, is packaged in a self-contained, sealed unit that can accommodate less severe ambient temperatures. In a wider look at the economics of transporting the vaccine, IATA chief economist Brian Pearce believes that the distribution will unlikely become a “major factor” in airline profitability. Overall cargo capacity is still around 25% lower than last year because passenger operations are vastly reduced, bolstering yields.<br/>