US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Wednesday he backs another $20b in additional government payroll support for US airlines. “I think that would be very meaningful in terms of employment and saving the industry,” Mnuchin said at a House hearing. A bipartisan proposal released Tuesday called for $17b in payroll support for airlines to extend the program for four months. In October, American Airlines and United furloughed more than 32,000 workers after a prior $25b payroll assistance program expired. Airlines spent months seeking a new bailout and have won overwhelming support in the US Congress, but lawmakers have been reluctant to support airlines, while other transportation modes like transit, buses, and rail railroad Amtrak are also seeking emergency aid.<br/>
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The US Transportation Department said Tuesday it has made preparations to enable the “immediate mass shipment” of COVID-19 vaccines and completed all necessary regulatory measures. The department said US agencies have been coordinating with private sector companies that will carry vaccines from manufacturing facilities to distribution centers and inoculation points. It added it has established “appropriate safety requirements for all potential hazards involved in shipping the vaccine, including standards for dry ice and lithium batteries used in cooling.” The department is preparing to ensure deliveries of vaccine doses for about 40 million US residents through January, or about 20m a month, officials said. Healthcare workers and others recommended for the first inoculations could start getting shots within 24 hours after the vaccine receives regulatory authorization, the chief adviser for the US government’s Operation Warp Speed program said Tuesday.<br/>
Even if Covid-19 vaccines become widespread, business travel is likely to be changed by the pandemic. Travel budgets have been slashed and some meetings will remain virtual; conferences and conventions may be crimped. But by how much? It matters not only to airlines and their employees but also their customers -- travelers. That's because higher fares paid by corporate customers actually subsidize cheap fares for vacationers. What's more, less business travel means that airlines schedule fewer flights on business routes, like trips to New York, Chicago, London and Tokyo. That means fewer seats for leisure travelers. Estimates of permanent change in the airline industry have ranged from the CEOs of American, United and Delta all saying business travel will come roaring back in full, though it may take a few years, to observers like Bill Gates who recently suggested half of all business travel will never return. Guesses aside, a look at data suggests between 19% and 36% of all air trips are likely to be lost, based on a business-travel analysis I worked on with three airline-industry veterans. "Brick-and-mortar retail has been devastated by ecommerce and I think this is a parallel story," says Jay Sorensen, president of IdeaWorks, an airline-industry consulting firm. Story has more data and analysis.<br/>
The airline industry is facing its biggest disaster ever as Capitol Hill hits another impasse over a coronavirus relief bill, said Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. “We are experiencing a crisis that is bigger than all the financial crises that the airline industry has faced since airplanes first took flight,” Nelson said Tuesday. It has been 250 days since the last stimulus bill passed. There’s been talks about a new Senate bipartisan $908 billion measure, which includes money for small businesses, state and local governments, and funding for $300-per-week unemployment benefits. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell shot it down, saying he needs to figure out what President Donald Trump will actually sign. “We don’t have time for messaging games. We don’t have time for lengthy negotiations,” McConnell said Tuesday after the bill was released. Nelson said the March stimulus bill should have taken the guesswork out of negotiations and writing another bill. ”[It] was the most transparent, most successful package of all of coronavirus relief, and it’s supposed to be the template that can be used for every other industry,” she said. Airline workers received financial support through the CARES Act’s Payroll Support Program which was signed into law on March 27. It kept airline employees on the payroll during the pandemic, but those benefits expired Sept. 30. Nelson said that as a result of federal inaction, thousands in the airline industry became unemployed. She added that lawmakers could take critical steps to help the ailing industry by authorizing another round of payroll support.<br/>
Canadian airlines haven’t gotten much of what they asked for from Justin Trudeau during the pandemic. With airports nearly empty, they’re now pinning their hopes on a testing experiment to convince the prime minister to relax some of the world’s strictest Covid-19 travel rules. A new program in the western province of Alberta is testing international travelers for the virus on arrival. Participants who receive a negative result are allowed to get back to a near-normal life in about two days, though a second test is required several days later. Everyone else entering Canada must quarantine for 14 days, a rule that has not changed since March. The lengthy quarantine and other restrictions -- including a ban on almost all foreign tourists -- have been a contentious point for a battered industry that Trudeau has balked at bailing out. Traffic at airport security checkpoints in Canada was just 14% of last year’s levels in the first 29 days of November, versus 37% in the US, according to data by the countries’ transport security authorities. Trudeau said Tuesday his government has no plans to open Canada’s borders soon. With widespread vaccination still months away, airlines are hanging on the testing experiment by the Alberta and federal governments as a ray of hope. “It has taken some time but we’re starting to see some footsteps in the snow,” said Andrew Gibbons, director of government relations for WestJet. The goal is to turn the program into a national one that will allow shorter quarantine times, he said, relieving pressure on financially-stressed airlines. WestJet says international bookings have grown by double-digit rates since the announcement of the Alberta test. Yet about 135 of its 181 planes remain parked, a sign of anemic demand for air travel.<br/>
Brazilian airframer Embraer expects the world’s airlines will require 5,500 aircraft with up to 150 seats in the coming ten years, as the industry reinvents itself after the historically disruptive coronavirus pandemic. Passenger levels will likely return to 2019 levels by 2024, the San Jose dos Campos-headquartered company says during its ten-year market forecast presentation. Revenue-passenger kilometres will be about 19% lower over the next decade than previously projected. But in this recovery, Embraer sees a unique opportunity for its new jets in the sub-150-seat capacity category to play a leading role in the global industry’s restructuring. ”The fallout from the pandemic signals the beginning of a new industry cycle, with many unique aspects,” writes CE Arjan Meijer in the company’s Market Forecast 2020 report, published on Wednesday. “Unlike the previous one, which was guided by a massive supply of capacity and a focus on lowest cost-per-seat, we foresee a cycle characterised by versatility, operating efficiency and profitability.” The outlook is based on several assumptions about the future of the commercial aviation industry, adds Embraer’s VP of marketing Rodrigo Silva e Souza. ”The commercial aviation industry will be smaller, and when it comes back we believe the growth rate will be significantly lower than what we had before,” he says. ”It will also have a different shape. Changes in the global trade flows and passenger behaviours will lead to changes in air travel overall.” Of the 5,500 anticipated deliveries, 1,080 will be turboprops and 4,420 will be jets, Embraer predicts. About three quarters will be replacement aircraft, and net growth will be about 25%, according to the forecast.<br/>