Airlines will need 5,500 aircraft with less than 150 seats by 2029: Embraer

Brazilian airframer Embraer expects the world’s airlines will require 5,500 aircraft with up to 150 seats in the coming ten years, as the industry reinvents itself after the historically disruptive coronavirus pandemic. Passenger levels will likely return to 2019 levels by 2024, the San Jose dos Campos-headquartered company says during its ten-year market forecast presentation. Revenue-passenger kilometres will be about 19% lower over the next decade than previously projected. But in this recovery, Embraer sees a unique opportunity for its new jets in the sub-150-seat capacity category to play a leading role in the global industry’s restructuring. ”The fallout from the pandemic signals the beginning of a new industry cycle, with many unique aspects,” writes CE Arjan Meijer in the company’s Market Forecast 2020 report, published on Wednesday. “Unlike the previous one, which was guided by a massive supply of capacity and a focus on lowest cost-per-seat, we foresee a cycle characterised by versatility, operating efficiency and profitability.” The outlook is based on several assumptions about the future of the commercial aviation industry, adds Embraer’s VP of marketing Rodrigo Silva e Souza. ”The commercial aviation industry will be smaller, and when it comes back we believe the growth rate will be significantly lower than what we had before,” he says. ”It will also have a different shape. Changes in the global trade flows and passenger behaviours will lead to changes in air travel overall.” Of the 5,500 anticipated deliveries, 1,080 will be turboprops and 4,420 will be jets, Embraer predicts. About three quarters will be replacement aircraft, and net growth will be about 25%, according to the forecast.<br/>