general

At least 2 airlines have pulled their forecasts as they assess the financial impact of last week’s grounding of the Boeing 737 Max jetliner after the second deadly crash of the plane model in 5 months. Analysts are expecting a short-term hit to flying capacity while Boeing resolves safety concerns and trains pilots. Yet the financial impact remains in question. “US airlines expect the Max grounding to be short-lived as schedule adjustments, when made, are short in duration,” Stifel analyst Joseph DeNardi wrote in a March 18 note. His expectation for available seat miles was unchanged from the prior week for Q1, and down 30 basis points for Q2 he said, suggesting a more limited impact than some had feared. <br/>

The crashes of 2 Boeing 737 MAX planes within 5 months are prompting regulators and pilots to reassess the bare minimum amount of training crews are required to complete before flying the new model. They are also reigniting broader debate across the aviation industry about whether overall experience levels among some crews are adequate when flights encounter trouble. The discussion is being sparked by possible malfunctions of the new 737 MAX model’s stall-prevention system. Boeing is developing a software fix, expected in the coming weeks, while regulators and the plane maker are debating the additional training needed. A senior US 737 MAX pilot said that very junior co-pilots might not be able to help the senior captain manage the number of alerts and actions needed to recover from a system malfunction. <br/>

The US DoT is investigating FAA’s certification process for Boeing 737 MAX family aircraft, adding to mounting pressure on the agency and the manufacturer following the March 10 crash of Ethiopian Airlines flight ET302. The DoT inspector general inquiry is centered on a Seattle-area FAA office responsible for certifying new aircraft, as well as a second Seattle-area office that sets training requirements and approves fleetwide training programs. FAA employees in those offices have reportedly been instructed to preserve all emails, reports and internal messages related to the 737 MAX certification process, as well as FAA’s decision to forego additional flight-simulator training requirements for pilots transitioning from older models of the aircraft. <br/>

For airline customers of Boeing’s 737 Max, there is no quick way out of the crisis of confidence that threatens to engulf the aircraft in the wake of the Ethiopian Airlines crash 9 days ago. Most of those that have 737 Max 8 aircraft on order, including Norwegian Air and Icelandair, have so far said they will keep them pending the outcome of the investigation. One of the biggest challenges for airlines is that the obvious replacement aircraft, the A320neo, is simply not available. Airbus, which could typically be a beneficiary of the Boeing crisis, is already working flat-out to produce enough of the fuel-efficient jets just to deliver on its existing backlog of orders. At the end of February the company had an order backlog of 5,962 for its single-aisle aircraft. Of that, 5,814 were for the A320neo and just 148 for the A320ceo. <br/>

The recent stark warning from Eurocontrol DG Eamonn Brennan that the continent’s air traffic system is close to “hitting a wall” appeared validated by data for February—typically a quiet time of year—revealing a sharp increase in delays on the year-ago period. Traffic last month rose by 3% compared with Feb 2018, but air traffic flow management delays increased 28.3%—to an average of about 26,000 minutes per day. Total en-route ATFM delays in February saw a 46.6% hike, and airport ATFM delays rose by 15.8% compared with Feb 2018. On average, the number of flights per day with an en-route ATFM delay of at least 15 minutes increased from 177 flights per day in February last year to 253 flights per day in February—representing 1% of all flights handled by European air navigation service providers. <br/>

Austria’s Supreme Administrative Court has granted permission for Vienna Airport to add a third runway. The airport, which has been considering a third runway since 1999, will now analyse the court decision and provide information about the next steps soon, airport operator Flughafen Wien said. "This decision ensures the long-term growth perspectives and competitiveness, not only for Vienna Airport but for the Austrian economy, industry, tourism and labour market,” Flughafen Wien board members Julian Jäger and Günther Ofner said. In March 2018, the Federal Administrative Court gave the go-ahead for runway construction, and the following October, the Constitutional Court dismissed citizens’ complaints about the planned runway. The airport is Austrian Airlines’ main hub and part of Lufthansa Group’s multi-hub strategy. <br/>

Pakistan has restricted its airspace indefinitely over fears India will launch another attack, forcing international airlines to take costly and time-consuming detours. “This is a matter of national security. There can be no compromise,” a senior Pakistan govt official said. “I realise this is a problem [for airlines] but Pakistan’s security must come first.” Another senior govt official said an air strike by the Indian military in northern Pakistan last month had “definitely” prompted the move to close the airspace. “We are still concerned that the Indians may go for another adventure as prime minister Modi tries to get votes to win the election,” the official said, referring to India’s national poll, to be held over 7 weeks from April 11. “Our reading is that the Indians are still thinking of attacking Pakistan”. <br/>