Two indicators in the aviation industry may be pointing to a economic downturn: declining demand for air cargo and a “peak” in aircraft orders last year, said to the executive chairman of CAPA Centre for Aviation. Peter Harbison explained that cargo demand is “typically seen as a forward indicator of ... not just the airline industry, but where the economy generally is heading ... Cargo is now declining fairly steeply, which suggests that the economy ... is not going to look so good.” As the world’s two largest economies remain deadlocked in a dispute over trade and technology, fears of a global recession have emerged. Demand in global air freight markets fell by 4.7% as compared to the same period last year, according to the IATA. Trade uncertainties contributed to declining new export orders and the weakness is likely to persist in the coming months, according to IATA. While there was a surge in demand for cargo about six to nine months ago — which gave “some kind of optimism” — Harbison maintained that the increase may just be a “one-off surge.” The “peak” in aircraft orders in 2018 may also be another indicator of a slowing global economy, Harbison said. “Leaving aside the impact of grounding the Maxes — assuming that will start to be rectified within the next 6 months at least — I think we probably did see a peak in aircraft orders last year, which unfortunately, generally, cyclically seems to precede the year when things turn down a bit,” he said.<br/>
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Lufthansa sent shockwaves through the European airline sector on Monday as it cut its full-year profit forecast, with lower prices and higher fuel costs compounding the effect of losses at its budget subsidiary Eurowings. The warning follows gloomy comments last month from Irish budget airline Ryanair, which vies with Lufthansa for top spot in Europe in terms of passengers carried. Air France-KLM also reported a widening quarterly loss last month. “Yields in the European short-haul market, in particular in the group’s home markets, Germany and Austria, are affected by sustained overcapacities caused by carriers willing to accept significant losses to expand their market share,” it said. European airlines are locked in a battle for supremacy, with a surfeit of seats holding down revenues and higher fuel costs adding to the pressure. A number of smaller airlines have collapsed over the past two years. Shares in Lufthansa hit a two-year low of 15.40 euros for their highest intraday loss in three years. They were down 12% at 15.55 euros by 0900 GMT. Rivals were also caught up in the turbulence, with shares in Ryanair, British Airways owner IAG, Wizz Air, Air France and Easyjet falling by up to 4.4%.<br/>
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Monday signed a bill into law allowing foreign airlines to operate domestic flights in Latin America’s largest air market, a move that could usher in new competition or lead foreign carriers to buy up the local players. The bill had started as an executive order issued by former President Michel Temer in the last days of his tenure in late 2018. Brazil’s Congress made the measure permanent last month, but included some changes that required a presidential signature. On Monday, Bolsonaro signed the bill into law but vetoed a section of the bill that would have banned carriers from charging customers certain baggage fees. The proposed measure had been opposed by the airline industry, as well as by Brazil’s antitrust regulator, CADE. Brazil’s domestic air market is dominated by three carriers: Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes, LATAM Airlines Group and Azul SA. Together they control more than 90% of the domestic market.<br/>
Aviation regulators in the US are streamlining the approval process for supersonic test flights as they try to speed development of a new generation of faster aircraft. FAA acting chief Daniel Elwell announced on Monday the agency will propose changes in the flight-test regulations later this week. The proposal is the first of several planned actions by FAA to help bring higher speeds to air travel, the agency said. “This is a necessary, key step for further research and development in an emerging segment,” Elwell said in remarks prepared to be delivered at the Paris Air Show. The proposal is designed to help companies such as Aerion Corp., a start-up founded by Texas billionaire Robert Bass, and Boom Technology Inc., which are attempting to develop supersonic jets for use by airlines or wealthy individuals. The FAA proposal won’t change an existing prohibition of flights above the speed of sound. Those regulations were developed in the 1970s as a result of the loud sonic boom produced by aircraft flying at those speeds. The FAA plans to make it easier for companies to apply to the agency to get permission to make test flights. A sonic boom is produced by aircraft flying faster than 1,225 km per hour at sea level and gradually decreasing to about 660 miles per hour at higher altitudes. New research suggests it may be possible to lower the volume of the sonic boom, making it more palatable for flights over populated areas.<br/>
If time is of the essence when you travel, book with Hawaiian Airlines. The airline ranks as the speediest airline, according to a new report from Forbes. Forbes partnered with Aerospace Engineering and Research Associates (AERA) to study airport performance metrics and to gauge America's fastest airlines. Since 1987, on-time rates have been compiled by the DoT, where they allow airlines to determine flight times at their discretion. According to Forbes, these numbers have flaws: If a flight lands within 15 minutes of its scheduled arrival time, DOT counts it as on time. AERA and Forbes came up with a new metric that's based on the "block time," which is the time from when a plane’s brakes are released on departure through when the brakes are set at the arrival gate and the door opens. AERA reviewed all scheduled flights in the US in 2018 to calculate the shortest flight time on each route. Forbes used the following example to illustrate the methodology: "For example, the minimum block time for the LaGuardia to Miami route was pegged at 164 minutes. Airlines’ actual flight times varied from an average of 172 minutes (Frontier) to 192 minutes (American)." AERA used this data to calculate an efficiency index average that analyzed how close an airline's flights for the year got to their routes’ minimum block times. Among the ten mainline carriers, Hawaiian Airlines came out on top, which ranked first for efficiency as well as the DOT's on-time rate. Forbes stated that this ranking could be a result of most of Hawaiian's domestic flights being short distances between the calm-weathered Hawaiian islands. Southwest was number two on the list. The airlines' 2018 domestic flights averaged 12.5 minutes above the minimum achievable times on each route it flew. <br/>
Boeing is open to renaming its troubled 737 Max, its most important and currently its most infamous aircraft. Boeing CFO Greg Smith revealed the possibility of a name change on the sidelines of the Paris Air Show. "I'd say we're being open-minded to all the input we get," he said. "We're committed to doing what we need to do to restore it. If that means changing the brand to restore it, then we'll address that. If it doesn't, we'll address whatever is a high priority." Boeing cautioned that it has no plans at this time to change the name, and that it is focused on the safe return of the aircraft to service. It The company still doesn't have a timeframe for when airline regulators around the world will allow the plane to fly again. The 737 Max has been grounded since March after two fatal crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia. Rebranding a plane due to bad publicity surrounding a crash would be unprecedented, according to aviation experts. Other aircraft that had high profile crashes such as the DC-10 or 727 kept their names. That's because airlines aren't going to view the plane any differently with a different name. And the passengers who buy the tickets often are not aware of what type of plane they will be flying.<br/>
Airbus has broken records by launching the longest-range narrow-body jetliner at the Paris Airshow, but planemakers are having to rethink their mantra on comfort as they squeeze ever more miles out of jets designed for shorter trips. Airbus and Boeing have been promoting new carbon-fiber long-haul aircraft such as the 787 Dreamliner and A350, which offer roomier cabins and help passengers avoid jet lag by providing a cabin pressure closer to that felt on the ground. But they have also been adding more range and capacity to older and narrower models such as the A320neo family and the 737 MAX as airlines demand more flexibility with the advantages of highly efficient single-aisle planes, supporting low fares. Airbus pushed that further on Monday by adding a longer stride to the A321neo with its new A321XLR, whose range of 4,700 nautical miles leapfrogs the out-of-production Boeing 757 and nudges it into the long-jump category enjoyed by wide-body jets. It also eats into a range category targeted by a possible new mid-market twin-aisle jet, the NMA, under review by Boeing. But there is a debate over whether passengers will enjoy flying longer distances in medium-haul planes, or at what price. Airline bosses on the long-haul low-cost panel at the Paris Air Forum on Friday differed over whether extended-range narrow-body jets or wider twin-aisles were best suited for their growing industry. In particular, the rise of the single-aisle long-distance jet involves revisiting years of industry marketing about the benefit of escaping jet lag and fatigue on long trips. Story has more.<br/>
The chief salesman for Airbus says his company already has the technology to fly passenger planes without pilots at all — and is working on winning over regulators and travelers to the idea. Christian Scherer also said Monday that Airbus hopes to be selling hybrid or electric passenger jets by around 2035. While the company is still far from ready to churn out battery-operated jumbo jets, Scherer said Airbus already has "the technology for autonomous flying" and for planes flown by just one pilot. "This is not a matter of technology — it's a matter of interaction with the regulators, the perception in the traveling public," he said. "When can we introduce it in large commercial aircraft? That is a matter we are discussing with regulators and customers, but technology-wise, we don't see a hurdle." Several manufacturers are presenting unmanned aircraft at the Paris Air Show, primarily for military purposes — and some are also proposing pilotless "air taxis" of the future. When it comes to autonomous passenger jets, safety is an obvious concern. It's an issue that is on many minds after two deadly crashes of the Boeing 737 Max jet that have implicated problematic anti-stall software. Scherer said the crashes "highlighted and underlined the need for absolute, uncompromising safety in this industry, whether from Airbus, Boeing or any other plane." While he said Airbus' sales streategy hasn't changed as a result of the crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia, "there is a capacity need that materialized as a result of this, and naturally you have airlines that are frustrated over capacity, that are looking for answers."<br/>