Air cargo leaders expect ‘challenging but profitable’ 2021

Elevated demand for dedicated air cargo services will persist for several years until there is a meaningful return of passenger services, according to leading figures in the air cargo industry. Even with the rollout of vaccines “this [market] will continue for the foreseeable future”, Martin Drew, Etihad’s VP for sales and cargo said 26 January. Drew says the carrier’s cargo unit has had “a record year in revenue teams” for 2020 and is expecting “a similar number this year”. Steven Polmers, chairman of The International Air Cargo Association, notes that a return of passenger belly capacity will “take a little longer that we hope or than we would like”. The benefit to air cargo is not only firmer rates but that “we can continue to use passenger aircraft for cargo only ops, that will help us keep a certain network in place to meet global demand.” Lufthansa Cargo CE Peter Gerber believes that the recovery will be “much slower than we [previously] expected.” Passenger airlines had been eyeing a post-Q1 “spring peak”, but “this is not going to happen. Lockdowns are still in place and are even more serious than they used to be”. Once vaccination programmes are accelerated and improved weather results in lower Covid-19 numbers, “then I would expect with the end of the second quarter we will see some recovery” Gerber says. However he is only expecting a return to around 50% of 2019’s passenger traffic levels for the year.<br/>