Wary European airports see pre-crisis traffic return coming a year earlier

Airports body ACI Europe has improved its passenger outlook for 2022 and now expects a full traffic recovery to happen a year earlier than previously amid strong summer demand, but warns several factors could still derail the recovery. In its previous outlook, published in October, ACI Europe’s base case for European airports was for passenger traffic to be 32% below pre-crisis levels this year and not to return to 2019 activity levels until 2025. However, it now sees that gap closing to 22% below 2019 passenger levels this year, and a full recovery to pre-pandemic highs in 2024. ACI Europe director general Olivier Jankovec says: ”At the moment, the performance of passenger traffic is trending along our high-case optimistic scenario on the back of travel restrictions lifting across many markets and strong summer pent-up demand.” Despite this upbeat prognosis, ACI notes it comes with several “hefty warnings” that Covid, alongside geopolitical and economic risks, could impact the recovery. ”The history of the past three years suggests caution, especially as we still do not have an established playbook in Europe – let alone globally – on how to deal with future Covid-19 variants when it comes to travel,” says Jankovec. ”And beyond the immediate operational challenges from staffing issues, there is no escape from rising geopolitical tensions and stagflation fears, meaning risks for air traffic only go in one direction – down.”<br/>