The outlook for airlines has darkened as the post-pandemic boom in travel wears off and recession looms, with carriers focused on Britain particularly exposed, industry executives warned on Monday. The CE of transatlantic-focused Virgin Atlantic said 2023 would be "tough", while Heathrow Airport's boss said airlines were increasingly worried about the demand outlook, and the head of global industry body IATA warned about the impact of the downturn on Britain. Most European airlines posted soaring profits this northern hemisphere summer as people took advantage of the first travel season without COVID-19 restrictions for three years. But with inflation soaring and mortgage rates rising, disposable income is set to plunge, and analysts have asked how long the boom can last. Shai Weiss, the chief executive of Virgin Atlantic, said he was bracing for next year after the company beat its forecasts for 2022. "It's going to be a tough 2023. We need, of course, the price of energy to come down and people's lives to be a bit better with inflation tamed," Weiss told an industry conference. Heathrow CEO John Holland-Kaye said that the aviation industry's focus was shifting from the recovery from COVID-19 to worrying about the global economy. "Airlines are concerned about the nature of demand," he told reporters on the sidelines of the conference.<br/>
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The airline industry remains likely to return to profit next year, with high employment levels and growth in key economies sustaining demand even as household bills spiral, the head of its main lobby group said. Carriers should achieve positive earnings in 2023 for the first time since 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic roiled global travel, IATA DG Willie Walsh said in an interview Monday. “We still see a path to profitability. We’ll review it, but I don’t see a major revision,” Walsh said of the financial projections, which IATA is due to update in briefings next month. A recovery in passenger traffic should also continue into next year despite economic headwinds, before returning to pre-Covid levels in 2024, Walsh said at the Airlines 2022 conference in London. The upbeat tone matches IATA’s prediction in June, when Walsh predicted his industry’s return to profitability, particularly as airlines in North America enjoy a strong comeback. Carriers are expected to post a collective deficit of $9.7b this year, with a bumper summer having failed to make up for losses earlier in 2022 when flights were disrupted by the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, Walsh said, reiterating a forecast first issued in June. Walsh said that there are still pockets of concern going into 2023. Asian markets, which have lagged behind the global rebound amid continuing Covid curbs, are likely to pick up more, but the recovery of China in particular still dependent on the government’s approach to containing the virus, he said.<br/>
US airlines and airports are preparing for a surge in passengers over the Thanksgiving holiday, with the number of travelers expected to hit the highest level in three years. Nearly 55m Americans will take to the roads, skies and rails for the holiday, with air travel recovering to about 99% of the 2019 levels before the COVID-19 pandemic, travel group AAA estimates. "I expect most flights to be running very full," said John Grant, senior analyst at travel data firm OAG. "So finding a seat ... might be quite difficult." Weary of coronavirus-related lockdowns, Americans are eager to travel more as the impact of the pandemic eases. However, staffing and aircraft shortages have capped the airline industry's ability to ramp up capacity, resulting in fewer seats and higher fares for travelers. Eric Fabricant, 38, of Connecticut, was flying on Monday from Newark International Airport to San Francisco for the holiday and his ticket cost him $800 compared with $250 two years ago. "I'm always a little bit worried about delays because I don't feel like the airlines are as reliable," he said, citing concerns about exposure to COVID-19 on more crowded planes. "Knock on wood that works out.”Thanksgiving Eve on Wednesday tends to be the busiest day for travel. However, the option to work remotely has allowed many Americans to stretch out their trips and avoid the last-day rush. The new travel pattern is also expected to ease the pressure on airline operations, said Sharon Pinkerton, a senior vice president at Airlines for America (A4A), an industry trade group. Yet A4A and analysts are advising travelers to pack their patience and arrive early to allow extra time for security.<br/>
A US appeals court on Monday threw out class-action lawsuits accusing Boeing and Southwest of covering up a fatal flaw in the design of the Boeing 737 MAX 8 plane, and ordered that the litigation be dismissed. In a 3-0 decision, the 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans said four classes of passengers who claimed they were overcharged on nearly 200m Southwest and American Airlines tickets over 18 months could not prove they were harmed, depriving federal courts of jurisdiction. Brian Dunne, whose law firm represented the plaintiffs, declined to comment. Boeing and Southwest did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The 737 MAX was grounded worldwide after 346 people died in the October 2018 crash of Lion Air Flight 610 in Indonesia and March 2019 crash of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 in Ethiopia. Passengers accused Southwest, Boeing's launch customer for the MAX 8, of pressuring Boeing into deceiving FAA officials during the testing and certification process, ostensibly to lower pilot training costs. They also alleged that the companies misled the FAA about a Boeing aircraft stability system that took control of both planes and improperly pushed their noses down. Passengers said they overpaid for tickets on Southwest and American, which also flew the MAX 8, because demand and prices on the plane's routes would have fallen if the truth had been known. Circuit Judge Andrew Oldham, however, said the plaintiffs at most complained of a "past risk of physical injury to which they were allegedly exposed because of defendants' fraud," and lacked standing because that risk never materialized. He also said "if anything, plaintiffs are likely better off financially" because they would have to pay more on other flights had the MAX 8 been taken out of service sooner.<br/>
The FAA has finalised a rudder-related rule stemming from the 2001 crash of an American Airlines Airbus A300 after take off from New York. The agency on 21 November published a final rule requiring newly certificated aircraft with powered rudder-control surfaces to “be designed to withstand the loads caused by rapid reversals of the rudder pedals”. “Pilots sometimes make rudder reversals during flight, even though such reversals are unnecessary and discouraged,” says the rule, which the FAA proposed in 2018. “The current design standards do not require the airplane structure to withstand the loads that may result from such reversals.” The rule, which takes effect in about 60 days, will require manufacturers to demonstrate that new aircraft designs with powered rudder systems “can withstand an initial full rudder pedal input, followed by three full-pedal reversals at the maximum side-slip angle, followed by return of the rudder to neutral”. Powered rudders include those that use electric (fly-by-wire) or hydraulic systems to move rudders based on rudder-pedal inputs made by pilots. Most modern large aircraft have fly-by-wire rudder systems. The rule does not apply to aircraft with “mechanical” rudder controls, which typically involve cables linking pedals to the rudder itself. The rule will apply to newly issued type certificates, though variants of existing aircraft types might also be subject to the change, according to the FAA. The regulation’s impact on in-development aircraft remains unclear. But, the FAA anticipates only four in-development aircraft types, including two large aircraft and two business jets, will be affected during the next 10 years. It does not specify those types but says they have fly-by-wire rudder systems. Boeing’s 737 Max – two variants remain to be certificated – have rudder cables but also hydraulic rudder actuators. Notably, however, the rule will apply only to projects for which manufacturers apply for certificates after the rule takes effect. The FAA anticipates compliance will come at “minimal cost” to aircraft manufacturers – just $600,000 total for the two large aircraft and $470,000 total for the two business jets.<br/>
An independent committee will present a report by the summer of 2024 to provide the basis for the government to decide about setting aside land for a third runway at Oslo Airport. The investigation must contain calculations of future air travel volumes in Eastern Norway, as well as options for how the expected number of travelers in the future should be handled, the transport ministry said in a statement on Monday. The committee will also look at what role the non-government Rygge and Torp airports should play. The state will first decide whether a third runway should be built at Gardermoen if airport operator Avinor considers it necessary and applies for a license for it, the ministry said.<br/>
Willie Walsh, one of the world’s best-known aviation executives, has said “heads should roll” at London’s Heathrow airport if there is a repeat next year of this summer’s long waits and traffic restrictions. Walsh, CE of industry trade group Iata and former CE of International Airlines Group, owner of British Airways, said Britain’s busiest airport remained a “major problem”. “The problem at Heathrow has been mostly down to Heathrow’s inability to get people through security,” Walsh said at the Airlines 2022 conference in London in the latest sign of anger at the airport’s management. “People ask me, ‘Are we going to face these same problems next summer?’” Walsh added. “If they do, heads should roll — let’s be clear about that. There’s no excuse for not getting the problems sorted — no excuse at all.” At the same conference Shai Weiss, CE of Virgin Atlantic, called for a comprehensive rethink of Heathrow’s regulation in light of what he said was poor service and high prices at the UK’s only hub airport. Backing Weiss’s points, Walsh said airports in most of the world had recovered well from the Covid-19 pandemic. The exceptions, he said, had been Heathrow, Amsterdam’s Schiphol, where Dick Benschop, the airport’s chief executive, had stood down, and Dublin Airport, where Walsh said the problems had now been resolved. John Holland-Kaye, Heathrow’s CE, has laid much of the blame for continued disruption at the airport on airlines, which he said had failed to recruit sufficient ground handlers to manage the rebound in traffic. Walsh called that explanation “total rubbish”. Heathrow said the airport’s regulator needed to give it the ability to invest in the airport and all the operators at the airport needed to “work together” to build back capacity.<br/>
The boss of Britain’s biggest airport group has said there is “no doubt” that Brexit has damaged the UK economy, adding that it has “massively exacerbated” worker shortages. Charlie Cornish, the CE of MAG, which owns Manchester, Stansted and East Midlands airports, said problems with recruitment were making the UK less competitive. Manchester airport was one of the facilities worst affected by disruption this year as a shortage of frontline staff left it unable to handle the post-Covid demand for travel, with huge queues and chaotic scenes in security and baggage halls. Speaking at the Airlines 2022 conference in London, Cornish said: “There’s no doubt that Brexit has damaged the UK economy, 99% of leading economists would tell you that. You just have to look at the rate of growth now, and that’s significant.” He added: “If that carries on, the UK’s ability to be competitive will get eroded every single year. We do need the UK government to look at how to actually get a sensible economic growth plan back, with aviation at the centre of that.” Cornish said that while other factors such as Covid had structurally altered the labour force, the problems were exacerbated by fewer Europeans coming back into the UK. “That does damage the UK aviation sector’s ability to recruit workforce at scale and at pace,” he said. “Pre-Brexit, that problem was never there.” He added: “Aviation is wholly linked to GDP. We have to have an open conversation: how are we going to solve the Brexit-related disruption? If you look at the economic recovery in the EU, they’re much further ahead of the UK. Nobody’s going to be able to say that’s not due to Brexit.”<br/>
Dubai's main airport on Tuesday raised its passenger forecast for this year by nearly two million to 64.3 million people after a strong pick up in business in the third quarter from the same period last year. DXB, a major gateway for international travel, handled nearly 18.5m passengers in the three months to the end of September, up from 6.7ma year earlier, state-owned operator Dubai Airports said. The Gulf hub has seen more than 46.3 million passengers so far this year, up 168% year-on-year, and about 72% of its traffic in the same nine months of 2019, before the pandemic. London was the top destination city in Q3, with 2m passengers, followed by Riyadh and Mumbai. India was the top country destination, with 6.8m passengers, followed by Saudi Arabia, Britain and Pakistan.<br/>
At the foothills of the Himalayas, in the city of Dehradun, India’s government is working on a jet fuel it hopes can help clean up the smog hanging over its big cities. There -- on a sprawling 300 acre tea estate where leopards and deer can be spotted -- scientists are working with partners including Boeing Co. to get global approvals for their biofuel, which is made from waste cooking oil and the seeds of plants like pongamia and jatropha that aren’t consumed. The project run by the Indian Institute of Petroleum, a laboratory of the Council of Scientific & Industrial Research, is India’s attempt at shaking up the $155 billion global biofuels industry, which has long been dogged by criticism that crop-based alternatives like ethanol can trigger indirect emissions by expanding farmland and driving up food prices for the world’s poorest people. The institute has tied up with India’s biggest airline, IndiGo, to deploy its homegrown fuel, however its researchers face a string of challenges. Not only is the new technology for the production of the fuel more expensive than traditional jet fuel, but there are difficulties collecting sufficient raw materials, hampering scientists’ ability to produce it on a wide enough scale to be commercially viable. Building the infrastructure needed to transport and store the sustainable aviation fuel will take “significant” investments, said Salil Gupte, president of Boeing India. “At this point, it’s more about first proving that we can do the fuel locally and that’s what we’re engaged on with IIP,” Gupte said. “The infrastructure to build out the availability of jet aviation fuel has taken decades and decades, so we’re going to have to either modify or build over that system an equally convenient capability for sustainable aviation fuel.”<br/>
Sydney Airport boss Geoff Culbert has issued a plea to airlines to increase their international capacity while government data shows the industry’s domestic performance remains below pre-COVID-19 levels. Figures show 3% of scheduled services were cancelled last month and just under 70% of flights arrived and departed on time, according to the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics. The average number of on-time arrivals and departures for the same period in 2019 was about 82%, with 1.5% of flights cancelled. But Culbert, Sydney Airport’s CE, is focused on increasing the number of international flights. He said the lack of seat capacity into and out of Australia was “constraining growth”, revealing the total passenger traffic in October remained 25.5% lower than the same period in 2019. “To see a sustained recovery in our tourism market and visitor economy we need to unlock more capacity as quickly as we can,” Culbert said on Monday. About 900,000 international passengers passed through Sydney Airport in October, down 35% on the corresponding period in 2019. Sydney Airport’s domestic passenger traffic totalled 2,044,000 over the month, down 20% on the corresponding period in 2019.<br/>
The US FAA Monday proposed new rules that would help pave the way for commercial air taxi operations by around the middle of the decade. Electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOL) have been touted as flying taxis that could be the future of urban air mobility. The low-altitude urban air mobility aircraft has drawn intense interest around the world as numerous eVTOL companies have gone public. The FAA issued a proposal to update its air carrier definition to add "powered-lift" operations to regulations covering other commercial operations like airlines, charters and air tours. "This powered-lift definitions rule lays the foundation that will allow operators to use powered-lift aircraft," the agency said in a statement to Reuters. The FAA is separately developing a powered-lift operations rule for certifying pilots and operating requirements to fly eVTOLs. The agency expects to publish the proposal next summer. Acting FAA Administrator Billy Nolen told reporters last week that the agency does not expect the first eVTOL to begin commercial operations until late 2024 or more likely early 2025. "At any rate it won't happen until the safety piece has been satisfied," he said. Airlines and others are looking at developing transport services using battery-powered aircraft that can take off and land vertically to ferry travelers to airports or on short trips between cities, allowing them to beat traffic.<br/>