Airfares on key corporate travel routes are expected to rise by as much as 25% in 2023 amid high fuel prices, a stronger U.S. dollar and labour and aircraft shortages, a forecast from American Express Global Business Travel (Amex GBT) showed. The biggest gains are expected in economy class on routes between Australia and Asia, in business class on Australian domestic flights and those to New Zealand, as well as in economy class on Asia-Europe flights. The cost of economy class flights within North America will rise by a more muted 3% and within Europe by 5.5% as capacity cuts during the pandemic are restored. "Following significant price increases in 2022, fare rises in the competitive North America air sector are likely to be of a smaller degree than those forecast for Europe and Asia Pacific," Amex GBT said Thursday. Flights from Asia to Europe are being forced to take longer routes in many cases as airlines avoid Russian airspace due to its war with Ukraine. On a Tokyo-London flight, the change in route can add nearly 2.5 hours of flying time and a 20% increase in fuel burned, Amex GBT said, contributing to a forecast 14.5% rise in Asia-Europe economy class fares in 2023. In Australia, the country's competition regulator said on Tuesday that average domestic airline revenues per passenger were 27% higher in October than in the same month of 2019 because of capacity constraints, high oil prices and operational challenges.<br/>
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Asian airlines are largely expected to turn in weaker earnings than previously anticipated in the October-December quarter, with Chinese carriers continuing to struggle under Beijing's pandemic restrictions. Analysts surveyed by QUICK-FactSet downgraded the forecast earnings before interest and taxes in the quarter for 15 out of 35 airlines worldwide. The latest projections, made at the end of November, were compared to forecasts at September's end. Out of the 15 downgraded airlines, seven were Asian carriers. In contrast, Western airlines account for 12 of 20 carriers whose outlooks were upgraded from September's assessments. Japan's two major carriers -- ANA Holdings and Japan Airlines -- are among the winners. Japan loosened entry restrictions for tourists in October and the government has rolled out travel subsidies for residents. July-September quarter results also highlight the widespread struggle among Asian airlines. Earnings at 10 carriers deteriorated during that period, half of them in Asia. The eight airlines that turned in losses that quarter were all Asian. The carriers that reported losses include China's three major airlines: China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines and Air China. Taiwan's China Airlines, Indian low-cost carrier IndiGo and South Korea's Jeju Air were also in the red. The uncertainties have continued into the current quarter. Market forecasts place China Southern's fourth quarter loss at roughly 7.1b Chinese yuan ($1.01b), marking a downgrade of about 1.8b yuan. The demand in passenger travel has been slower to recover than expected, said Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong's Kelvin Lau, who forecasted that China Southern will turn an annual profit in 2024. Story has more.<br/>
Two US senators are proposing legislation to require the FAA to rewrite aircraft evacuation standards to do a better job of taking real life conditions into account. Current rules say airlines must be able to evacuate passengers within 90 seconds but do not set seat size requirements. The FAA uses tests to determine if shrinking seat sizes and seat pitch on airplanes are safe. Senators Tammy Duckworth and Tammy Baldwin argue the FAA simulation tests do not include real-life conditions and are proposing the Emergency Vacating of Aircraft Cabin (EVAC) Act. "It appalled me that it's not a realistic test. They are using groups of able-bodied people," Duckworth, who is a double amputee, told Reuters, noting that FAA tests have just 60 passengers. "The current standards are not realistic and if we're going to test than we need to have realistic parameters." In 2018, Congress directed FAA to issue regulations establishing minimum dimensions for passenger seats "necessary for the safety of passengers" within a year but it has not done so. The FAA released an aircraft cabin evacuation study in March said Thursday it is reviewing 26,000 public comments it received to determine "whether current seat size and spacing affect passenger evacuation."· The agency noted Congress requires it to follow ethical research guidelines for human testing, limiting use of individuals with disabilities, children and senior citizens.<br/>
The US FAA said it has approved special conditions for the Airbus A321XLR after concerns were raised that a novel type of fuel tank could pose fire risks in its newest narrow-body jet. Rival planemaker Boeing (BA.N) told European regulators in 2021 the architecture of a fuel tank intended to increase the A321XLR's range "presents many potential hazards". The FAA said in a filing seen by Reuters that it will require that the lower half of the A321XLR fuselage, spanning the longitudinal area of the tank, be resistant to fire penetration to protect passengers. The FAA publication provides further clarity surrounding the development of the new jet, whose introduction has been delayed to 2024. Industry sources say proposed delivery schedules of the longer-range single-aisle jet have been left in a state of flux while regulators pondered how to treat the novel design. "While discussions with the airworthiness authorities are still ongoing, we are not in a position to comment during the public consultation period," an Airbus spokesperson said. Entry-to-service remains scheduled for the second quarter of 2024, the spokesperson added. Airbus shares were up by around 1.3% in Thursday morning trade. The FAA said the special conditions are needed because the new Airbus twin-engine plane includes an extra fuel tank moulded into the airplane fuselage rather than in its wings. The tank is in an area of the lower fuselage that partially replaces the rear cargo compartment of earlier aircraft designs.<br/>
After more than half a century of production, the last Boeing 747 has rolled out of a US factory in Washington state. The final customer was the cargo carrier Atlas Air, which ordered four 747-8 freighters early this year. The final plane was rolled out of Boeing’s massive factory in Everett, Washington, on Tuesday night. The 747 jumbo jet has taken on numerous roles in its lifetime: a cargo plane, a commercial aircraft capable of carrying nearly 500 passengers, and even the Air Force One presidential aircraft. When it was first produced in 1969 it was the largest commercial aircraft in the world and the first with two aisles. It still towers over most other planes. The plane’s design included a second deck extending from the cockpit back out over the front third of the plane, giving it a distinctive hump that made it instantly recognisable and inspired the nickname, the Whale. It took more than 50,000 Boeing employees 16 months to churn out the first 747. The company has completed 1,573 more since then. But over the past two decades, Boeing and its European rival Airbus have turned to more fuel-efficient and profitable aircraft; widebody planes with two engines instead of the 747’s four. Delta was the last US airline to use the 747 for passenger flights – ending in 2017 – although some international carriers continue to fly it, including the German airline Lufthansa. Boeing announced in May that it would move its headquarters from Chicago to Arlington, Virginia.<br/>
Pent-up winter travel demand will continue to fuel the airline industry recovery, a new analyst report says, as Canadians get set to travel to sun destinations despite higher prices and recession concerns. National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen wrote in a research note released this week that early signs from airline and tour operators show that winter travel demand is strong, with both bookings and pricing to sun destinations running ahead of pre-pandemic levels. "Early indications from industry participants point to demand and pricing being strong this winter, despite consumers being pressured by high inflation and concerns over the macroeconomic backdrop," Doerksen wrote. "With the pandemic now in the rearview mirror, we believe that the pent-up demand will be a significant tailwind for Canadian airlines over the winter, especially in sun destination markets." Doerksen says the main impediment for sun destination travel over the last two years has been pandemic-related travel restrictions. With nearly all travel curbs removed (proof of vaccination is still required in the United States and in Turks and Caicos) demand is expected to return. "For many Canadian travellers, what was once an annual sun vacation has been absent for three consecutive winters. We therefore see significant pent-up demand for sun vacations for the winter of 2022-2023," Doerksen noted.<br/>
Climate activists took their protest against cheap air travel to two of Germany's largest airports on Thursday, with some gluing themselves to the tarmac in Munich and Berlin. Activists from the Last Generation environmental group called on the government to stop subsidising air travel and expand cheap train travel offers instead, they said in a statement. According to local media, flights at Munich airport were disrupted. A spokesperson for Berlin airport said that there were currently no disruptions. Police in southern Germany said the protesters were currently being unglued from the Munich airport tarmac and taken into custody, and the protests were dispersed. Protesters also staged road blockades at several points across Berlin on Thursday, Last Generation said. Thursday's actions are the latest effort by activists to raise awareness by blocking runways and streets in Germany.<br/>
Britain's interior minister Suella Braverman warned on Thursday that planned strikes by border force workers at major airports including Heathrow and Gatwick over the Christmas period may cause delays. Border Force workers at several British airports will go on strike for eight days this month in a dispute over pay, threatening huge disruption to travel plans at one of the busiest times of the year. Braverman said people should think carefully about their plans to fly abroad in the coming weeks. "They may well be delayed on arrivals," she told reporters. "Ultimately, security at the border is my number one, non-negotiable priority." The PCS trade union said around 2,000-3,000 staff employed by Britain's interior ministry, the Home Office, would be involved in the walkouts on all but one day between Dec 23-31. The Times newspaper reported the action could lead to up to 30% of flights being cancelled on those days. Heathrow and the other airports have said they are working with the airlines and Border Force to mitigate disruption. Britain faces widespread industrial action throughout December, with railway workers and nurses due to walk out next week.<br/>
Aerospace is grappling with a slower-than-expected industrial recovery from the pandemic, with disruption spreading beyond its core supply chain and exposing fragile links with other sectors, the head of the world's largest planemaker said on Thursday. Airbus CE Guillaume Faury said the situation had also been aggravated by recent COVID restrictions leading to capacity closures in China, a major supplier. "There is an enormous problem in bringing the industrial supply chain back to strength worldwide, in the aviation world but not only in aviation," Faury told French journalists. "There is a lot of interdependence between the aerospace supply chain and electronic cards and components, raw materials and the availability of energy and skills at a worldwide level," Faury told the AJPAE French aerospace media association. "We see these problems spreading through the supply chain and what we, our suppliers and industrial partners ... imagined we could do at the start of the year when we built our production plans for 2022 - that didn't work out as expected." Faury was speaking broadly on behalf of French companies in his role as head of aerospace association GIFAS, but the comments shed further light on supply chain problems days after Airbus abandoned a delivery target and softened an output goal.<br/>
The C919, China’s first domestically developed narrow-body passenger jet, netted 300 new orders in November, with the first such aircraft due to be delivered this month. The model is expected to further drive the integrated growth of the nation’s aircraft manufacturing industry. The new orders were placed by seven domestic aircraft leasing companies that signed agreements with Commercial Aircraft Corp of China, or Comac, manufacturer of the C919, during the 14th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition in Zhuhai, Guangdong province, last month. As the number of air travellers rises worldwide – growing especially fast in China – the C919 is expected to help meet such demand. To date, 1,115 orders have been placed for the C919 in China and overseas. Comparable to the Airbus A320 and the Boeing B737 series, the C919 has 158 to 168 seats and a flying range of 4,075km to 5,555km. It is the first single-aisle aircraft for which the nation owns independent intellectual property rights, and the tag “Made in China “will soon be applied for large-scale passenger jets. In constructing the C919, Comac has played an important role in the Made in China 2025 strategy, which aims to advance the nation’s industrial manufacturing capabilities. The C919 is expected to break the market duopoly of Boeing and Airbus and help accelerate the aviation industry in China.<br/>
Air cargo traffic is predicted to drop by a further 4% next year, while yields and revenues are also expected to weaken compared with this year’s levels. The airline association’s head of policy analysis Andrew Matters revealed its predictions for next year. He says that cargo volumes are expected to fall 4.3% year on year to 57.7m tonnes, following on from an 8.1% fall this year to 60.3m tonnes. “This reflects the challenging global economic backdrop in terms of global economic growth but also in terms of international trade,” Matters says.He adds that as a result of load factors returning to pre-Covid levels, yields are expected to decline by around 22% next year, following on from a 7% increase this year, a 24% increase in 2021 and a 50% increase in 2020. Matters says that current yield levels are unsustainable. “It (22%) sounds like a big number and quite dramatic but it isn’t too unreasonable given the very strong increases we have seen in recent years,” he explains. Airline cargo revenues are expected to fall around 25% next year to $149.4b, although Matters points out this is still around 50% higher than pre-Covid levels. “The exceptional period that we have had looks like it is coming to an end. We started to come back to levels across a number of these variables that we are more accustomed to.” Another factor raised by Matters is that freighter deliveries are increasing in a cooling air cargo market. However, he adds that there were potential upside risks to the demand forecast. <br/>
At the Bogota airport, as passengers were placing their carry-ons, laptops and purses in bins inching their way on the conveyer belt for inspection, one item stood out: it was a cat, and its owner was putting it into a cabin-ready case. Why are cats allowed? Yes, dogs are also permitted in the cabin. Yet twice as many people are allergic to cats as to dogs, according to the American College of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology. The culprit here is a protein found in the dried skin flakes of the animal's skin, saliva and urine. It is microscopically tiny, as small as 2-5 microns. "These particles are easily transported to the innermost recesses of the lungs," explains Dr. Christopher Randolph, clinical professor of allergy, immunology and pediatrics at the Yale School of Medicine. Randolph, who treats patients at his clinic in Waterbury, Connecticut, explains that the flakes are transported by dander. "Dander is the free ride that cat allergens attach to," he explains. In other words, it's not fur that causes the sneezing, itchy eyes and asthma. "People are not allergic to animal hair, but to dander, which is not related to the length or amount of hair", emphasizes allergy and asthma specialist Dr. Mark C. Jacobson, a former president of the Illinois Society of Allergy and Immunology. "There are no hypoallergenic breeds of cats or dogs," he and other specialists keep telling their patients. "Because dander is so small and sticky, it attaches itself to clothes, furniture, air and airplane seats. The confined space of a plane could definitely pose a hazard for patients with cat allergy," Jacobson says, adding that wiping down your seat is a good idea.<br/>