IATA predicts 4% drop in air cargo volumes next year

Air cargo traffic is predicted to drop by a further 4% next year, while yields and revenues are also expected to weaken compared with this year’s levels. The airline association’s head of policy analysis Andrew Matters revealed its predictions for next year. He says that cargo volumes are expected to fall 4.3% year on year to 57.7m tonnes, following on from an 8.1% fall this year to 60.3m tonnes. “This reflects the challenging global economic backdrop in terms of global economic growth but also in terms of international trade,” Matters says.He adds that as a result of load factors returning to pre-Covid levels, yields are expected to decline by around 22% next year, following on from a 7% increase this year, a 24% increase in 2021 and a 50% increase in 2020. Matters says that current yield levels are unsustainable. “It (22%) sounds like a big number and quite dramatic but it isn’t too unreasonable given the very strong increases we have seen in recent years,” he explains. Airline cargo revenues are expected to fall around 25% next year to $149.4b, although Matters points out this is still around 50% higher than pre-Covid levels. “The exceptional period that we have had looks like it is coming to an end. We started to come back to levels across a number of these variables that we are more accustomed to.” Another factor raised by Matters is that freighter deliveries are increasing in a cooling air cargo market. However, he adds that there were potential upside risks to the demand forecast. <br/>