Honeywell reports slowing business jet orders but leaves 10-year delivery forecast unchanged

Honeywell predicts that business jet manufacturers will deliver 8,500 aircraft worth almost $300b over the next 10 years, a figure unchanged since its last forecast in 2022. However, the 2023 edition of its Global Business Aviation Outlook provides new insight into the dynamics shaping the sector. Business jet operators are expanding their fleets rapidly and aircraft manufacturers are making progress in hiking production and delivery rates to match demand, the report notes. But it also highlights a slowing of new orders, a post-pandemic reduction in business aircraft flight activity and a “positive shift toward sustainability”. “We have seen fleet-expansion rates increase for the third year in a row,” says Honeywell strategy manager Javier Jimenez-Serrano. He says the trend reflects the surge of orders that came during the pandemic, driven partly by demand from first-time buyers. Honeywell expects manufacturers will deliver 8,500 new business jets, worth an estimated $278b, between 2024 and 2033, based on surveys of operators, manufacturers’ production plans and economic analyses. Of the 8,500 expected deliveries, about 500 will go to new business jet users and 4,000 will take place within five years, Honeywell anticipates. North American operators will likely receive 64% of jets to be delivered within five years, while those in Europe will take 14%, Asia-Pacific 11%, Middle East 6% and Latin America 5%. Large-cabin, long-range business jets will account for 69% of all business-jet sales over five years, Honeywell predicts. “Our industry is on the upswing. Operators are showing confidence with plans to expand their fleets at a faster rate than any time in the previous decade,” says Honeywell president of aftermarket Heath Patrick. The Covid-19 pandemic prompted aerospace suppliers to slash staff and production, but also triggered a spike in demand for private aircraft.<br/>