After the pandemic, Americans are flying again in force. Here’s why that’s a problem.

In the spring of 2020, as the coronavirus swept over the globe, air travel disappeared. Airlines flew empty “ghost flights” to retain airport slots. Airport terminals were deserted. And the planet-warming emissions from aviation also plummeted — to less than half their 2019 levels. As the pandemic wore on, workers grew accustomed to Zoom meetings and virtual conferences; families opted to take driving trips instead of getting on cross-country flights. Some climate experts and activists wondered if the shift in transportation would have long-term effects — transforming the way Americans travel for work and vacation. But now, 3½ years on, Americans’ love of flying has fully returned. Last month, the Transportation Security Administration logged 75.5m passengers passing through airports in the United States — more than the 72m who traveled in October of 2019. The TSA expects 30m passengers to travel over the Thanksgiving holiday period alone. Globally, the International Civil Aviation Organization expects 2023’s passenger demand to outpace 2019’s by about 3%. Experts say the social norms around travel, the desire to maintain connections with distant family and friends, and the relative convenience of air travel keep Americans flying. And as aviation returns, any hope of a lasting decrease in emissions from flying is disappearing — at least until technology improves. Some aspects of flying don’t seem to have returned entirely; analysts say business travel, for example, has not fully returned to pre-pandemic levels and is unlikely to do so until next year. But traveling for vacation and other leisure activities has increased to offset the number of meetings now occurring via Zoom and other platforms. That’s similar to airline shocks of the past — after the 9/11 terrorist attacks and 2008 financial crisis, leisure travel was the first to rebound, while business travel took much longer.<br/>